---
title: "HEIRLOOM JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HEIRLOOM JOKER ($314.48) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 86.00% over 2,035 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HEIRLOOM JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HEIRLOOM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=all)

Price · $314.48

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $275.17 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.00% · 2,035 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.13% ±12.08 984 openings

7 days · 86.00% ±8.30 2,035 openings

30 days · 86.00% ±8.30 2,035 openings

since tracking started · 86.00% ±8.30 2,035 openings

75.5% 88.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=24h) | 984 | 88.13% ±12.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=7d) | 2,035 | 86.00% ±8.30 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker) | 2,035 | 86.00% ±8.30 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom-joker?window=all) | 2,035 | 86.00% ±8.30 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,041 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 32 | $2,858 | 32.5% | 62 | 63.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1,707 | 19.4% | 70 | 63.8 | 1.10× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 32 | $1,384 | 15.7% | 68 | 63.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 32 | $738 | 8.4% | 65 | 63.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 32 | $595 | 6.8% | 57 | 63.8 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $541 | 6.1% | 57 | 63.8 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $311 | 0.9% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $182 | 0.5% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $135 | 1.5% | 53 | 63.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $105 | 1.2% | 82 | 63.8 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $88.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $83.77 | 1.0% | 68 | 63.8 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $67.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $57.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $54.54 | 0.6% | 68 | 63.8 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $52.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $47.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $46.88 | 0.5% | 71 | 63.8 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $45.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $43.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $40.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $39.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $37.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $26.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $23.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $23.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $23.06 | 0.3% | 58 | 63.8 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $23.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $20.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $17.92 | 0.2% | 67 | 63.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $15.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $15.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $13.56 | 0.2% | 57 | 63.8 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $12.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $12.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $12.24 | 0.1% | 64 | 63.8 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $10.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $10.27 | 0.1% | 66 | 63.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $9.38 | 0.1% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $8.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 32 | $8.03 | 0.1% | 73 | 63.8 | 1.14× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $7.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $7.54 | 0.1% | 62 | 63.8 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $7.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $7.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $6.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/heirloom-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $314 $2,858 9.09x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $314 $2,858 9.09x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [DeadGamer](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DeadGamer) $314 $2,858 9.09x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $314 $2,858 9.09x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $314 $2,858 9.09x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [BERKAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BERKAY) $315 $2,840 9.02x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $315 $2,840 9.02x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $315 $2,840 9.02x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $315 $2,840 9.02x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [twitch.tv/agiie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/twitch.tv%2Fagiie) $315 $2,840 9.02x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=heirloom-joker)

[P250 | Kintsugi weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi) Hidden $315 $9.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $315 $9.38 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) Hidden $315 $9.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) [KOD: GRANAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%3A%20GRANAT) $315 $8.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $173 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $1,421 4.51x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $8.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $538 1.71x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $9.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $315 $141 0.45x 2026-11-11 19:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $314 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $312 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $338 | 88.50% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 6.3% restricted 6.3% gold 3.1% covert 14.6% red 5.2% blue 20.3% rare 1.0% consumer 3.1% Ancient 1.0% pink 25.5% classified 1.0% violet 9.4% Mil Spec Grade 1.6% Legendary 1.6% best hit $2,858 (9.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt