---
title: "HEIRLOOM case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HEIRLOOM ($20.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 85.21% over 20.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HEIRLOOM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HEIRLOOM

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $17.50 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.21% · 20.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.39% ±2.59 15.2K openings

7 days · 85.21% ±2.21 20.9K openings

30 days · 85.21% ±2.21 20.9K openings

since tracking started · 85.21% ±2.21 20.9K openings

82.0% 85.3% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.70% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.00% – 87.41%, 20,939 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=24h) | 15.2K | 85.39% ±2.59 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=7d) | 20.9K | 85.21% ±2.21 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom) | 20.9K | 85.21% ±2.21 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/heirloom?window=all) | 20.9K | 85.21% ±2.21 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,840 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,705 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,421 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $735 | 0.8% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $587 | 0.7% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $538 | 0.9% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $314 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $178 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $141 | 0.3% | 15 | 8.6 | 1.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $105 | 0.3% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $88.11 | 0.7% | 0 | 30.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $83.84 | 1.3% | 51 | 58.3 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $62.44 | 1.2% | 0 | 73.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $62.07 | 1.2% | 0 | 75.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $54.54 | 3.9% | 259 | 269.7 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $51.87 | 1.5% | 0 | 105.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $48.59 | 2.0% | 0 | 155.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $47.44 | 2.3% | 0 | 179.1 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $46.88 | 7.4% | 583 | 595.6 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $44.54 | 2.4% | 0 | 202.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $38.75 | 2.7% | 0 | 267.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $37.08 | 2.6% | 0 | 265.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $34.60 | 2.8% | 0 | 306.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $27.43 | 1.5% | 0 | 200.7 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $23.06 | 8.6% | 1,359 | 1400.4 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $23.06 | 2.8% | 0 | 459.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $22.66 | 2.9% | 0 | 476.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $22.47 | 2.9% | 0 | 485.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $20.04 | 2.0% | 0 | 375.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $17.98 | 5.0% | 1,077 | 1057.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $15.70 | 1.4% | 0 | 330.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $15.42 | 1.4% | 0 | 338.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.56 | 4.3% | 1,201 | 1184.6 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.50 | 1.4% | 0 | 435.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $12.26 | 1.5% | 0 | 459.6 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $12.24 | 4.0% | 1,227 | 1232.1 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.16 | 3.6% | 1,334 | 1329.2 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $9.90 | 1.6% | 0 | 619.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $9.38 | 3.4% | 1,368 | 1372.4 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $8.45 | 1.7% | 0 | 772.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 15 | $8.12 | 3.1% | 1,450 | 1452.2 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $7.77 | 1.4% | 0 | 701.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.41 | 3.0% | 1,561 | 1506.1 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $7.31 | 1.8% | 0 | 949.4 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $6.99 | 1.5% | 0 | 811.3 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $6.94 | 1.8% | 0 | 994.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/heirloom`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [oezu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/oezu) $20.00 $2,826 141.3x 2026-11-10 07:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Łaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C5%81aza) $20.00 $1,707 85.33x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $20.00 $735 36.75x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [1311121](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/1311121) $20.00 $601 30.06x 2026-11-10 11:38 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Siik0 Style](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Siik0%20Style) $20.00 $601 30.06x 2026-11-10 09:55 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [BOT Bim](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BOT%20Bim) $20.00 $595 29.76x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $20.00 $595 29.76x 2026-11-11 09:32 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [vzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/vzy) $20.00 $595 29.76x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $20.00 $595 29.76x 2026-11-10 16:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $549 27.45x 2026-11-10 07:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=heirloom)

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) [velrikk2](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/velrikk2) $20.00 $46.88 2.34x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) [korvex15](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/korvex15) $20.00 $9.10 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi) [waxxo98](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/waxxo98) $20.00 $8.92 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) Hidden $20.00 $9.10 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $12.24 0.61x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) Hidden $20.00 $9.10 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[P90 | Deathgaze weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze) [noaim:d](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/noaim%3Ad) $20.00 $8.63 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand) Hidden $20.00 $7.35 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots) Hidden $20.00 $9.10 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $17.98 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $20.00 | 87.87% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $20.00 | 87.92% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% restricted 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 5.3% red 0.9% blue 31.0% rare 0.5% consumer 2.8% Ancient 1.2% pink 31.7% violet 16.9% classified 2.3% Mil Spec Grade 2.9% Legendary 4.6% best hit $2,826 (141.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt