---
title: "HELLFIRE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HELLFIRE JOKER ($11.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.53% from 64 items with odds, observed 83.79% over 25.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HELLFIRE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HELLFIRE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=all)

Price · $11.50

Advertised RTP · 87.53% · EV $10.07 from 64 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.79% · 25.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.56% ±11.82 2,476 openings

7 days · 83.03% ±4.00 21K openings

30 days · 83.79% ±3.63 25.8K openings

since tracking started · 83.79% ±3.63 25.8K openings

71.0% 83.5% 96.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.79% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.16% – 87.42%, 25,765 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=24h) | 2,476 | 83.56% ±11.8 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=7d) | 21K | 83.03% ±4.00 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker) | 25.8K | 83.79% ±3.63 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire-joker?window=all) | 25.8K | 83.79% ±3.63 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $166 | 75.1% | 1,109 | 1171.7 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $13.53 | 3.1% | 0 | 585.7 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $12.30 | 2.8% | 0 | 586.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $7.80 | 0.9% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $6.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $6.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $6.43 | 1.0% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $5.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $4.85 | 0.7% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $4.50 | 0.7% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $4.43 | 0.7% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $4.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 585.7 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $4.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $3.96 | 0.9% | 0 | 586.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $3.81 | 0.6% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $3.81 | 0.6% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $3.69 | 0.8% | 0 | 585.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $3.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $3.66 | 0.8% | 0 | 586.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $3.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $3.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $3.17 | 0.7% | 0 | 585.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.52 | 1.1% | 1,184 | 1171.7 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $1.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 586.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $1.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $1.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $1.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $1.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $1.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $0.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 1,191 | 1172.0 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.6 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 390.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hellfire-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hellfire-joker)

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $11.50 $3.99 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush) Hidden $11.50 $0.54 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $11.50 $3.99 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise) [SZYMIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SZYMIX) $11.50 $2.43 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $11.50 $0.55 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $11.50 $1.25 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $11.50 $3.99 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $11.50 $0.47 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs) [moGGed](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/moGGed) $11.50 $2.35 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [moGGed](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/moGGed) $11.50 $166 14.46x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $11.50 | 87.53% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.64 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $11.72 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $11.45 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.68 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $10.69 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $10.68 | 87.54% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $10.95 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $10.95 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $10.95 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $10.95 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $10.94 | 87.47% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $10.95 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.94 | 87.47% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $10.94 | 87.50% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.97 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $11.83 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $11.97 | 87.51% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.97 | 87.49% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.83 | 87.48% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.97 | 87.49% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $12.21 | 87.52% | 64 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $12.39 | 87.48% | 64 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.1% classified 6.1% pink 12.9% #d32ee6 3.8% violet 24.6% Mil Spec 2.3% restricted 9.8% #4b69ff 10.2% Mythical 6.4% mil spec 2.3% uncommon 1.5% Restricted 1.5% Rare 1.1% milspec 2.7% blue 8.7% #8847ff 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.53 on average: an expected loss of $12.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt