---
title: "HELLFIRE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HELLFIRE ($0.70) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 64 items with odds, observed 85.75% over 51.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HELLFIRE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HELLFIRE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=all)

Price · $0.70

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.61 from 64 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.75% · 51.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.09% ±3.21 4,201 openings

7 days · 86.12% ±1.07 33.8K openings

30 days · 85.75% ±0.88 51.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.75% ±0.88 51.3K openings

83.0% 87.0% 91.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.87% – 86.63%, 51,276 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=24h) | 4,201 | 87.09% ±3.21 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=7d) | 33.8K | 86.12% ±1.07 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire) | 51.3K | 85.75% ±0.88 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hellfire?window=all) | 51.3K | 85.75% ±0.88 | −3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $166 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $13.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $7.80 | 0.6% | 0 | 23.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $5.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 13.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $4.01 | 1.1% | 0 | 87.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $3.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 285 | $3.69 | 2.1% | 0 | 181.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $3.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 280 | $3.66 | 2.1% | 0 | 184.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-well-worn) | 1 in 448 | $3.50 | 1.3% | 0 | 115.1 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 424 | $3.40 | 1.3% | 0 | 121.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $3.17 | 1.5% | 0 | 148.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $2.52 | 4.2% | 412 | 532.9 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.70 | 2.8% | 0 | 514.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $1.62 | 0.4% | 0 | 72.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $1.42 | 1.1% | 0 | 235.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $1.33 | 1.4% | 0 | 322.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $1.30 | 1.4% | 0 | 329.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $1.29 | 1.4% | 0 | 334.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $1.25 | 1.4% | 0 | 365.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 1 in 139 | $1.24 | 1.5% | 0 | 370.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $1.15 | 1.5% | 0 | 420.8 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $1.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 150.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $1.06 | 1.4% | 0 | 421.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-minimal-wear) | 1 in 301 | $1.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 171.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.98 | 1.5% | 0 | 493.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 207 | $0.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 249.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 212 | $0.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 243.2 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $0.72 | 1.0% | 0 | 439.9 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $0.70 | 0.9% | 0 | 405.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 10.1% | $0.55 | 9.1% | 3,887 | 5219.9 | 0.74× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $0.55 | 1.9% | 0 | 1107.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.52 | 2.1% | 0 | 1278.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.50 | 2.4% | 0 | 1537.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.50 | 2.4% | 0 | 1537.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.50 | 2.3% | 0 | 1443.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.47 | 2.3% | 0 | 1533.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.47 | 2.2% | 0 | 1510.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.47 | 2.1% | 0 | 1379.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.47 | 2.1% | 0 | 1379.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.46 | 2.3% | 0 | 1556.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 3.0% | 0 | 2070.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.44 | 2.4% | 0 | 1726.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.44 | 2.3% | 0 | 1681.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.44 | 2.2% | 0 | 1615.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.43 | 2.4% | 0 | 1783.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.43 | 2.4% | 0 | 1736.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.43 | 2.3% | 0 | 1710.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.43 | 3.1% | 0 | 2275.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 2.6% | 0 | 2029.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.40 | 2.2% | 0 | 1729.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.38 | 2.4% | 0 | 1983.3 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.38 | 2.8% | 0 | 2355.1 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.37 | 2.9% | 0 | 2444.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hellfire`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hellfire)

[MAC-10 | Button Masher weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher) Hidden $0.70 $0.46 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill) Hidden $0.70 $0.46 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) [Piter777\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Piter777_skins.army) $0.70 $0.47 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $0.70 $0.46 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer) Hidden $0.70 $0.40 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream) Hidden $0.70 $0.46 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream) [mrozi \_lt;3 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mrozi%20_lt%3B3%20skins.army) $0.70 $0.46 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $0.70 $0.47 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8) Hidden $0.70 $0.47 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $0.70 $1.27 1.81x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.70 | 87.36% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.70 | 87.14% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.70 | 86.60% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.70 | 87.13% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.70 | 87.76% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.70 | 87.74% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.70 | 86.97% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.70 | 86.59% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.70 | 88.03% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.70 | 86.81% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.70 | 87.76% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.70 | 86.69% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.27% | 64 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.70 | 87.06% | 64 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.3% classified 0.0% pink 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% violet 32.9% Mil Spec 3.9% restricted 1.0% #4b69ff 11.0% Mythical 6.5% mil spec 3.4% uncommon 0.6% Restricted 0.7% Rare 1.0% milspec 5.0% blue 19.9% #8847ff 13.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt