--- title: "HEXFIRE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HEXFIRE JOKER ($893.21) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 91.16% over 1,590 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HEXFIRE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HEXFIRE JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=all) Price · $893.21 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $781.56 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.16% · 1,590 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91.97% ±8.84 1,340 openings 30 days · 91.16% ±8.10 1,590 openings since tracking started · 91.16% ±8.10 1,590 openings 82.5% 92.0% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=7d) | 1,340 | 91.97% ±8.84 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker) | 1,590 | 91.16% ±8.10 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire-joker?window=all) | 1,590 | 91.16% ±8.10 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 17 | $5,655 | 42.6% | 101 | 94.3 | 1.07× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 17 | $3,027 | 22.8% | 95 | 94.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 17 | $2,239 | 16.8% | 101 | 94.3 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $804 | 6.0% | 96 | 94.3 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 17 | $413 | 3.1% | 104 | 94.3 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 34 | $302 | 1.1% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 34 | $254 | 1.0% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $240 | 1.8% | 91 | 94.3 | 0.96× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $229 | 1.7% | 92 | 94.3 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $119 | 0.4% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $105 | 0.4% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $89.32 | 0.7% | 94 | 94.3 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $67.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $46.80 | 0.4% | 96 | 94.3 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $44.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $42.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $37.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $28.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $23.06 | 0.2% | 86 | 94.4 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $22.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $22.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $20.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $19.83 | 0.1% | 104 | 94.4 | 1.10× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $18.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $17.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $15.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 31.5 | 0.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hexfire-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 23:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 21:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 21:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 20:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 00:40 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-07 00:18 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-06 22:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Silencieux zZzZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Silencieux%20zZzZ) $892 $5,675 6.36x 2026-11-06 22:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $889 $5,675 6.39x 2026-11-05 22:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [dzs4z0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dzs4z0n) $889 $5,675 6.39x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hexfire-joker) [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-emerald) Hidden $893 $278 0.31x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $893 $240 0.27x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $893 $413 0.46x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) [GruchaGbałagan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GruchaGba%C5%82agan) $893 $240 0.27x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-factory-new) Hidden $893 $23.06 0.03x 2026-11-10 01:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $893 $5,655 6.33x 2026-11-10 01:47 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental) Hidden $893 $112 0.13x 2026-11-10 01:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $893 $5,655 6.33x 2026-11-10 01:47 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $893 $2,239 2.51x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $893 $804 0.90x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $893 | 87.50% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $879 | 87.50% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $889 | 87.50% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $893 | 87.50% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $889 | 87.50% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $891 | 87.50% | 26 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $892 | 87.50% | 26 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $891 | 87.50% | 26 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $892 | 87.50% | 26 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $889 | 87.50% | 26 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $898 | 87.50% | 26 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $889 | 87.50% | 26 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $898 | 87.50% | 26 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $893 | 87.50% | 26 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $898 | 87.50% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $899 | 87.50% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.9% rare 8.8% red 10.3% classified 11.8% extraordinary 5.9% mil spec 5.9% #d32ce6 2.0% violet 17.6% uncommon 2.9% pink 3.9% best hit $5,675 (6.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt