---
title: "HEXFIRE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HEXFIRE ($36.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.65% from 26 items with odds, observed 86.82% over 24.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HEXFIRE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HEXFIRE

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=all)

Price · $36.00

Advertised RTP · 87.65% · EV $31.55 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.82% · 24.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.93% ±1.63 19.6K openings

30 days · 86.82% ±1.47 24.3K openings

since tracking started · 86.82% ±1.47 24.3K openings

84.5% 86.8% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=7d) | 19.6K | 86.93% ±1.63 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire) | 24.3K | 86.82% ±1.47 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hexfire?window=all) | 24.3K | 86.82% ±1.47 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50,000 | $5,485 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33,333 | $3,016 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,234 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $804 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $398 | 0.4% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $304 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $242 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $239 | 1.7% | 53 | 55.9 | 0.95× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $236 | 1.7% | 46 | 55.9 | 0.82× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $117 | 2.6% | 0 | 167.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $99.22 | 3.0% | 0 | 233.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $91.48 | 5.6% | 515 | 469.4 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $63.96 | 3.5% | 0 | 415.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 13.3% | $46.80 | 19.7% | 3,135 | 3232.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $43.69 | 5.1% | 0 | 892.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $42.12 | 5.3% | 0 | 958.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $37.52 | 5.9% | 0 | 1206.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $27.10 | 2.5% | 0 | 698.1 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-factory-new) | 12.9% | $23.35 | 9.6% | 3,342 | 3140.1 | 1.06× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $22.92 | 4.2% | 0 | 1396.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $22.80 | 4.3% | 0 | 1461.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $19.54 | 4.6% | 0 | 1809.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $18.62 | 2.9% | 0 | 1196.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 14.2% | $18.38 | 8.3% | 3,435 | 3456.3 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $18.13 | 4.6% | 0 | 1926.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $15.64 | 3.1% | 0 | 1527.5 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hexfire`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [CODE: Ivero](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CODE%3A%20Ivero) $36.00 $804 22.32x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hexfire)

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) Hidden $36.00 $43.54 1.21x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-factory-new) Hidden $36.00 $23.35 0.65x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) [HyeXX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HyeXX) $36.00 $46.80 1.30x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $36.00 $46.80 1.30x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $36.00 $91.48 2.54x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines) [GUSTLIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GUSTLIK) $36.00 $20.14 0.56x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) Hidden $36.00 $43.54 1.21x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $36.00 $18.38 0.51x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) [GUSTLIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GUSTLIK) $36.00 $18.38 0.51x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) Hidden $36.00 $43.54 1.21x 2026-11-10 11:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $36.00 | 87.65% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $36.00 | 87.70% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $36.00 | 87.88% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $36.00 | 87.90% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $36.00 | 87.84% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $36.00 | 87.98% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $36.00 | 87.84% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $36.00 | 87.72% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $36.00 | 87.90% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $36.00 | 87.87% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $36.00 | 87.93% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $36.00 | 87.97% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $36.00 | 88.00% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $36.00 | 87.97% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.4% rare 6.0% red 10.7% classified 2.2% extraordinary 0.2% mil spec 13.3% #d32ce6 2.9% violet 40.8% uncommon 7.4% pink 11.2% best hit $804 (22.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.65 on average: an expected loss of $12.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt