---
title: "HLTV V1 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HLTV V1 JOKER ($19.25) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.48% from 66 items with odds, observed 83.85% over 10.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HLTV V1 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HLTV V1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=all)

Price · $19.25

Advertised RTP · 87.48% · EV $16.84 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.85% · 10.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.14% ±12.78 975 openings

7 days · 84.16% ±4.05 9,221 openings

30 days · 83.85% ±3.83 10.4K openings

since tracking started · 83.85% ±3.83 10.4K openings

68.5% 82.0% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=24h) | 975 | 82.14% ±12.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=7d) | 9,221 | 84.16% ±4.05 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker) | 10.4K | 83.85% ±3.83 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hltv-v1-joker?window=all) | 10.4K | 83.85% ±3.83 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $175 | 54.7% | 515 | 548.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $44.56 | 13.9% | 533 | 548.1 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $43.38 | 6.8% | 0 | 274.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $37.58 | 5.9% | 0 | 274.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $13.66 | 2.1% | 0 | 274.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $13.57 | 0.8% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $12.91 | 2.0% | 0 | 274.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $9.53 | 1.5% | 0 | 274.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.58 | 2.7% | 563 | 548.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $7.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $7.37 | 0.6% | 0 | 137.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $5.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $5.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $4.93 | 0.4% | 0 | 137.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $4.88 | 0.5% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $4.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $4.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $4.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $4.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $4.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $4.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $4.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $4.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $4.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $4.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $3.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $3.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $3.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 182.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $2.78 | 0.2% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $2.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $2.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 274.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $1.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $1.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $1.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $1.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $0.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $0.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 109.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hltv-v1-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hltv-v1-joker)

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) Hidden $19.41 $13.31 0.69x 2026-11-12 01:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.41 $8.46 0.44x 2026-11-12 01:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $19.41 $3.56 0.18x 2026-11-12 01:01 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) Hidden $19.41 $13.31 0.69x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile) Hidden $19.41 $0.99 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | RMX weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $19.41 $0.29 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord) Hidden $19.41 $1.30 0.07x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $19.41 $177 9.10x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $19.41 $0.27 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $19.41 $7.36 0.38x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $19.25 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $19.33 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $19.25 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $19.37 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $18.93 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $18.93 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $18.91 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $18.66 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $18.68 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $18.68 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $18.70 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $18.78 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $18.97 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $18.78 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $18.97 | 85.38% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $18.98 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $18.97 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $18.98 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $19.63 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $19.79 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $19.90 | 87.52% | 66 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.3% red 10.5% classified 8.8% pink 16.1% Mythical 6.3% Classified 2.1% restricted 10.0% violet 20.5% Legendary 4.6% blue 12.6% Rare 2.1% #4b69ff 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.48 on average: an expected loss of $12.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt