---
title: "HOLLOW FRENZY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HOLLOW FRENZY JOKER ($139.46) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 36 items with odds, observed 87.74% over 2,045 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker
rendered: 2026-11-13T01:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HOLLOW FRENZY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HOLLOW FRENZY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=all)

Price · $139.46

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $122.03 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.74% · 2,045 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 90.29% ±9.45 1,268 openings

30 days · 87.74% ±7.42 2,045 openings

since tracking started · 87.74% ±7.42 2,045 openings

79.5% 90.0% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=7d) | 1,268 | 90.29% ±9.45 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker) | 2,045 | 87.74% ±7.42 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy-joker?window=all) | 2,045 | 87.74% ±7.42 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,077 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 18 | $887 | 40.4% | 104 | 115.4 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $623 | 9.5% | 0 | 38.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 18 | $533 | 24.3% | 123 | 115.4 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $388 | 5.9% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $284 | 4.3% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $94.06 | 4.3% | 115 | 115.4 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $81.53 | 0.9% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $76.45 | 0.9% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $73.30 | 0.8% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $72.77 | 0.8% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $71.94 | 1.1% | 0 | 38.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $54.96 | 0.8% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $54.30 | 0.8% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $41.20 | 0.6% | 0 | 38.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $40.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $31.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $30.43 | 0.7% | 0 | 57.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $26.87 | 0.6% | 0 | 57.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $22.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $14.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $13.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $12.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $8.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $5.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $5.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $5.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $5.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.94 | 0.2% | 119 | 115.4 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.53 | 0.2% | 115 | 115.4 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $4.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $4.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 38.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.48 | 0.1% | 116 | 115.4 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.43 | 0.1% | 107 | 115.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $2.33 | 0.1% | 112 | 115.4 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.14 | 0.1% | 99 | 115.4 | 0.86× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.99 | 0.1% | 103 | 115.4 | 0.89× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hollow-frenzy-joker`, 12 Nov, 14:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [twitch.tv/agiie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/twitch.tv%2Fagiie) $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 13:52 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 13:52 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:31 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:31 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:31 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:28 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:28 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 08:27 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-04 06:55 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $141 $905 6.42x 2026-11-03 21:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hollow-frenzy-joker)

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $139 $2.43 0.02x 2026-11-10 11:22 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) Hidden $139 $60.40 0.43x 2026-11-10 11:22 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) Hidden $139 $2.48 0.02x 2026-11-10 11:22 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [Wnusi0](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wnusi0) $139 $60.40 0.43x 2026-11-10 11:22 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) Hidden $139 $2.48 0.02x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) Hidden $139 $4.67 0.03x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $139 $76.01 0.55x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) [Wnusi0](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wnusi0) $139 $4.94 0.04x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) Hidden $139 $2.48 0.02x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon) Hidden $139 $13.65 0.10x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.2% red 9.7% rare 1.9% uncommon 3.7% pink 11.9% classified 1.9% Legendary 1.9% #d32ce6 1.1% violet 11.1% gray 5.6% blue 16.7% blueLight 5.6% best hit $905 (6.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt