---
title: "HOLLOW FRENZY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HOLLOW FRENZY ($4.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.56% from 36 items with odds, observed 86.24% over 84.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HOLLOW FRENZY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HOLLOW FRENZY

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 87.56% · EV $3.50 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.24% · 84.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 85.91% ±1.70 61K openings

30 days · 86.24% ±1.45 84.2K openings

since tracking started · 86.24% ±1.45 84.2K openings

83.5% 86.0% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.79% – 87.68%, 84,234 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=7d) | 61K | 85.91% ±1.70 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy) | 84.2K | 86.24% ±1.45 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hollow-frenzy?window=all) | 84.2K | 86.24% ±1.45 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $887 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $623 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $533 | 1.5% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $388 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $284 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $94.06 | 0.3% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $81.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $76.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $72.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $71.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $54.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $41.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $40.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 42.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $30.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 50.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $26.87 | 0.6% | 0 | 67.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $22.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $14.12 | 3.6% | 0 | 750.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $13.85 | 3.6% | 0 | 775.9 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $12.97 | 3.9% | 0 | 885.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $8.37 | 1.5% | 0 | 539.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $5.52 | 2.3% | 0 | 1239.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $5.49 | 2.3% | 0 | 1239.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $5.45 | 2.6% | 0 | 1391.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $5.17 | 2.4% | 0 | 1391.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.94 | 9.1% | 5,348 | 5439.8 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.53 | 9.1% | 5,699 | 5945.8 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $4.35 | 3.2% | 0 | 2192.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $4.22 | 3.3% | 0 | 2319.3 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 13.7% | $2.48 | 9.7% | 11,441 | 11562.7 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 13.8% | $2.43 | 9.6% | 11,546 | 11621.8 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 14.1% | $2.33 | 9.4% | 11,985 | 11866.4 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 14.5% | $2.14 | 8.9% | 12,564 | 12229.0 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.99 | 8.5% | 13,013 | 12642.3 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hollow-frenzy`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [ZABAYT49KSUB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ZABAYT49KSUB) $4.00 $534 133.4x 2026-11-07 17:49 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $4.00 $534 133.4x 2026-11-07 01:05 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [dcanns761](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dcanns761) $4.00 $533 133.3x 2026-11-09 19:38 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $4.00 $533 133.2x 2026-11-04 20:18 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Gottík](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gott%C3%ADk) $4.00 $533 133.2x 2026-11-04 18:53 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [Bubus\_56](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubus_56) $4.00 $382 95.56x 2026-11-03 11:05 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) Hidden $4.00 $381 95.35x 2026-11-05 10:48 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [dagsior](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dagsior) $4.00 $381 95.31x 2026-11-04 23:00 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [farfromheaven](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farfromheaven) $4.00 $381 95.21x 2026-11-08 06:31 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) Hidden $4.00 $381 95.21x 2026-11-07 23:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hollow-frenzy)

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $2.43 0.61x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $2.48 0.62x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) [BrodnyZyd](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrodnyZyd) $4.00 $2.48 0.62x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $2.14 0.54x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $4.53 1.13x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) [Fifol.\_ CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Fifol._%20CS2.ME) $4.00 $2.48 0.62x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $2.43 0.61x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $4.94 1.24x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [BrodnyZyd](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrodnyZyd) $4.00 $2.33 0.58x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [Meszi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Meszi) $4.00 $2.14 0.54x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.56% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.00 | 87.92% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.33% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.00 | 87.48% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.00 | 87.79% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $4.00 | 87.77% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.51% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.00 | 87.55% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.69% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.00 | 87.64% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.00 | 87.89% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.00 | 87.87% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.00 | 87.89% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.88% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.84% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.2% rare 0.0% uncommon 0.1% pink 10.9% classified 0.9% Legendary 1.7% #d32ce6 1.7% violet 20.9% gray 7.0% blue 41.6% blueLight 15.0% best hit $534 (133.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.56 on average: an expected loss of $12.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt