---
title: "HORUS JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HORUS JOKER ($73.10) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 98.40% over 501 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HORUS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HORUS JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=all)

Price · $73.10

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $63.96 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.40% · 501 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 47 openings · below min

7 days · 97.01% ±16.15 444 openings

30 days · 98.40% ±15.22 501 openings

since tracking started · 98.40% ±15.22 501 openings

75.0% 125.3% 175.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=24h) | 47 | 125.31% ±49.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=7d) | 444 | 97.01% ±16.2 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker) | 501 | 98.40% ±15.2 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/horus-joker?window=all) | 501 | 98.40% ±15.2 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $520 | 47.8% | 42 | 33.3 | 1.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $225 | 6.9% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $223 | 6.8% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $169 | 5.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $135 | 12.4% | 37 | 33.3 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $83.84 | 1.9% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $64.58 | 1.5% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $63.19 | 1.9% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $49.41 | 1.1% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $46.74 | 1.4% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $46.07 | 1.1% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $44.80 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $41.33 | 1.3% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $40.76 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $40.42 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $39.96 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $39.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $19.69 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $16.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $15.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $14.99 | 0.5% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $11.76 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $11.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $10.99 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $10.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $10.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $8.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $7.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $7.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $6.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $6.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $5.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $3.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $3.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $3.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $3.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $3.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $2.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $2.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $2.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $2.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $2.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $2.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $2.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $1.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $1.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $0.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $0.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/horus-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [BIGBOOSSS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BIGBOOSSS) $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 23:37 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 23:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Johnny SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Johnny%20SKINS) $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 23:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 22:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 22:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 22:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.91 $530 7.17x 2026-11-04 22:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.73 $528 7.16x 2026-11-04 12:40 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.73 $528 7.16x 2026-11-04 11:00 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Byali Wąż](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Byali%20W%C4%85%C5%BC) $73.73 $527 7.15x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=horus-joker)

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $73.10 $520 7.11x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach) Hidden $73.10 $31.28 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot) [good](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/good) $73.10 $5.24 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[MAG-7 | Copper Coated weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated) Hidden $73.10 $2.46 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus) Hidden $73.10 $206 2.81x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate) Hidden $73.10 $7.78 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[P90 | ScaraB Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush) [Big Smoke it\_#039;s me Carl chil chil](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Big%20Smoke%20it_%23039%3Bs%20me%20Carl%20chil%20chil) $73.10 $10.47 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC

[P90 | ScaraB Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush) Hidden $72.17 $10.87 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $72.17 $513 7.11x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[SSG 08 | Azure Glyph weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph) Hidden $72.17 $1.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $73.10 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $72.17 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $73.38 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $73.28 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $73.68 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $74.46 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $74.45 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $74.13 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $74.53 | 87.51% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $72.95 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $73.73 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $73.91 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $73.73 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $74.77 | 87.49% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 17.2% red 3.4% classified 6.4% Ancient 2.9% violet 13.7% pink 3.4% #d32ce6 2.0% #4b69ff 3.1% mil spec 2.0% blue 17.8% restricted 2.0% #8847ff 7.8% Rare 5.3% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% blueLight 7.1% Uncommon 1.2% light blue 2.4% Industrial Grade 1.2% best hit $530 (7.17x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt