---
title: "HOT ICE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "HOT ICE JOKER ($33.82) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 60 items with odds, observed 94.43% over 5,501 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HOT ICE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HOT ICE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=all)

Price · $33.82

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $29.59 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.43% · 5,501 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.09% ±11.19 749 openings

7 days · 94.17% ±4.41 4,871 openings

30 days · 94.43% ±4.15 5,501 openings

since tracking started · 94.43% ±4.15 5,501 openings

82.5% 94.3% 106.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.27% – 98.58%, 5,501 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=24h) | 749 | 94.09% ±11.2 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=7d) | 4,871 | 94.17% ±4.41 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker) | 5,501 | 94.43% ±4.15 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/hot-ice-joker?window=all) | 5,501 | 94.43% ±4.15 | +3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,780 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $222 | 31.3% | 276 | 240.8 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $136 | 4.8% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $135 | 4.8% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $129 | 4.5% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $122 | 4.3% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $93.56 | 13.2% | 247 | 240.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $79.36 | 11.2% | 252 | 240.8 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $67.35 | 3.2% | 0 | 80.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $58.52 | 4.1% | 0 | 120.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $55.42 | 2.6% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $50.86 | 2.4% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $47.52 | 3.3% | 0 | 120.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $24.95 | 0.9% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $15.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $15.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $15.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $14.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $9.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $8.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $8.48 | 0.4% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $8.25 | 0.4% | 0 | 80.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $7.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 120.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $7.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $7.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $6.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $6.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $6.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $6.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $6.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $6.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $6.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $6.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $6.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $4.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $4.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 48.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $4.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $4.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 48.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $4.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $4.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $4.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 120.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $2.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $1.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.51 | 0.2% | 239 | 240.9 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $1.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $1.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 80.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 229 | 240.9 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $0.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 120.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 24 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 259 | 240.9 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) | 1 in 24 | $0.67 | 0.1% | 222 | 240.9 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 48.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 48.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 48.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 120.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) | 1 in 24 | $0.57 | 0.1% | 239 | 240.9 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 60.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 251 | 240.9 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/hot-ice-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=hot-ice-joker)

[SG 553 | Integrale weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale) Hidden $33.82 $5.98 0.18x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) Hidden $33.82 $7.35 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) [fиαfєк✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/f%D0%B8%CE%B1f%D1%94%D0%BA%E2%9C%9E) $33.82 $79.36 2.35x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18) Hidden $33.82 $0.86 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.82 $1.01 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [fиαfєк✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/f%D0%B8%CE%B1f%D1%94%D0%BA%E2%9C%9E) $33.82 $0.72 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) Hidden $33.82 $17.70 0.52x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $33.82 $222 6.57x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [fиαfєк✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/f%D0%B8%CE%B1f%D1%94%D0%BA%E2%9C%9E) $33.82 $0.72 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $33.82 $222 6.57x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $33.82 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $34.26 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $34.18 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $34.15 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $33.92 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $34.15 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $34.34 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $34.24 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $34.35 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $33.88 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $33.44 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $34.35 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $34.33 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $34.36 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $34.02 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $34.65 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $34.57 | 87.51% | 60 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.7% extraordinary 4.2% rare 4.2% classified 14.2% Legendary 5.8% pink 9.3% #d32ee6 4.0% restricted 6.9% violet 17.7% #8847ff 7.1% blue 4.2% Restricted 0.8% Mythical 0.8% grey 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt