--- title: "HOWL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "HOWL JOKER ($3,773.85) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 86.95% over 1,267 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HOWL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HOWL JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=all) Price · $3,773.85 Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $3,415.34 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.95% · 1,267 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.54% ±15.91 126 openings 7 days · 87.47% ±5.39 1,092 openings 30 days · 86.95% ±5.00 1,267 openings since tracking started · 86.95% ±5.00 1,267 openings 73.0% 89.5% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=24h) | 126 | 89.54% ±15.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=7d) | 1,092 | 87.47% ±5.39 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker) | 1,267 | 86.95% ±5.00 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl-joker?window=all) | 1,267 | 86.95% ±5.00 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,833 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 16.7% | $8,950 | 43.7% | 283 | 305.5 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 16.7% | $7,130 | 34.8% | 307 | 305.5 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 16.7% | $2,828 | 13.8% | 329 | 305.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 16.7% | $919 | 4.5% | 305 | 305.5 | 1.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 16.7% | $610 | 3.0% | 315 | 305.5 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 16.7% | $55.49 | 0.3% | 294 | 305.5 | 0.96× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/howl-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 12:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 11:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 11:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 11:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 11:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $3,792 $9,103 2.40x 2026-11-09 10:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,804 $9,103 2.39x 2026-11-07 21:52 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,804 $9,103 2.39x 2026-11-07 17:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,804 $9,103 2.39x 2026-11-07 17:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [KOD BISZKOPT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%20BISZKOPT) $3,804 $9,103 2.39x 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=howl-joker) [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $8,909 2.38x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $3,745 $612 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $3,745 $7,044 1.88x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $8,909 2.38x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $55.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $2,804 0.75x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [KOD BISZKOPT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%20BISZKOPT) $3,745 $7,044 1.88x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $55.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $55.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $3,745 $55.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $3,774 | 90.50% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3,767 | 90.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3,774 | 90.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $3,769 | 90.50% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3,792 | 90.50% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3,776 | 90.50% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3,804 | 90.50% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $3,789 | 90.50% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3,808 | 90.50% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3,792 | 90.50% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $3,818 | 90.50% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3,816 | 90.53% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3,790 | 90.50% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% contraband 16.7% gold 16.7% epic 16.7% best hit $9,103 (2.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt