--- title: "HOWL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "HOWL ($300.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.03% from 6 items with odds, observed 96.12% over 1,435 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [HOWL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · HOWL A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=all) Price · $300.00 Advertised RTP · 87.03% · EV $261.09 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.12% · 1,435 openings, odds method Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 129.52% ±32.81 380 openings 7 days · 109.14% ±19.70 1,054 openings 30 days · 96.12% ±16.88 1,435 openings since tracking started · 96.12% ±16.88 1,435 openings 78.5% 120.8% 163.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=24h) | 380 | 129.52% ±32.8 | +2.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=7d) | 1,054 | 109.14% ±19.7 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl) | 1,435 | 96.12% ±16.9 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/howl?window=all) | 1,435 | 96.12% ±16.9 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,435 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $8,950 | 19.4% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $7,130 | 23.3% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $2,804 | 12.1% | 23 | 16.2 | 1.42× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $912 | 14.1% | 50 | 58.0 | 0.86× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $610 | 13.7% | 85 | 84.3 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 87.5% | $51.70 | 17.3% | 1,254 | 1256.0 | 1.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/howl`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $9,103 30.34x 2026-11-06 17:15 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $9,103 30.34x 2026-11-05 16:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $9,064 30.21x 2026-11-07 22:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-10 22:53 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-10 20:31 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [PUFFCASE](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PUFFCASE) $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-09 23:07 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-09 16:14 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [DMG](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DMG) $300 $8,950 29.83x 2026-11-08 00:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=howl) [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $300 $610 2.03x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [kajacze;k](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kajacze%3Bk) $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $300 $51.70 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $300 | 87.03% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $300 | 87.19% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $300 | 86.63% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $300 | 87.02% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $300 | 86.84% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $300 | 87.30% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $300 | 86.84% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $300 | 87.30% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $300 | 87.09% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $300 | 86.70% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $300 | 87.05% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $300 | 86.76% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $300 | 86.75% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $300 | 87.08% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $300 | 87.07% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $300 | 87.02% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $300 | 86.63% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 89.2% contraband 0.9% gold 4.0% epic 5.9% best hit $9,103 (30.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.03 on average: an expected loss of $12.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt