---
title: "IMPERIAL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "IMPERIAL JOKER ($113.97) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 100.30% over 1,491 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [IMPERIAL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · IMPERIAL JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=all)

Price · $113.97

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $99.73 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.30% · 1,491 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 104.56% ±34.98 232 openings

7 days · 101.17% ±14.46 1,357 openings

30 days · 100.30% ±13.79 1,491 openings

since tracking started · 100.30% ±13.79 1,491 openings

69.0% 104.5% 140.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=24h) | 232 | 104.56% ±35.0 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=7d) | 1,357 | 101.17% ±14.5 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker) | 1,491 | 100.30% ±13.8 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial-joker?window=all) | 1,491 | 100.30% ±13.8 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,584 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 24 | $1,533 | 64.0% | 78 | 66.0 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 24 | $428 | 17.9% | 80 | 66.0 | 1.21× |
| [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 24 | $110 | 4.6% | 92 | 66.0 | 1.39× |
| [Sticker \| rox (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 24 | $97.52 | 4.1% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| m0NESY (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 24 | $50.87 | 2.1% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Headhunter (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headhunter-foil) | 1 in 24 | $45.59 | 1.9% | 82 | 66.0 | 1.24× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 24 | $24.98 | 1.0% | 84 | 66.0 | 1.27× |
| [Sticker \| Flame Tier6 (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flame-tier6-holo) | 1 in 24 | $16.95 | 0.7% | 78 | 66.0 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) | 1 in 24 | $9.88 | 0.4% | 79 | 66.0 | 1.20× |
| [Sticker \| New Sheriff (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-new-sheriff-foil) | 1 in 24 | $9.84 | 0.4% | 93 | 66.0 | 1.41× |
| [Sticker \| Global Elite (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-global-elite-foil) | 1 in 24 | $9.20 | 0.4% | 86 | 66.0 | 1.30× |
| [Sticker \| Tyloo (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 24 | $9.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 24 | $8.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Emperor (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-emperor-foil) | 1 in 24 | $7.94 | 0.3% | 65 | 66.0 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 24 | $6.32 | 0.3% | 92 | 66.0 | 1.39× |
| [Sticker \| Bosh (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bosh-holo) | 1 in 24 | $5.63 | 0.2% | 86 | 66.0 | 1.30× |
| [Sticker \| Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) | 1 in 24 | $5.01 | 0.2% | 100 | 66.0 | 1.52× |
| [Sticker \| Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) | 1 in 24 | $4.44 | 0.2% | 84 | 66.0 | 1.27× |
| [Sticker \| Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) | 1 in 24 | $4.18 | 0.2% | 85 | 66.0 | 1.29× |
| [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 1 in 24 | $3.55 | 0.1% | 85 | 66.0 | 1.29× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 24 | $2.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Eco Rush sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eco-rush) | 1 in 24 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 91 | 66.0 | 1.38× |
| [Sticker \| Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) | 1 in 24 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 78 | 66.0 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Run T, Run sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-run-t-run) | 1 in 24 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 66 | 66.0 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/imperial-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [PIELMENI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PIELMENI) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-06 07:45 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 21:02 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 20:20 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Hor3x)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hor3x%29) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 18:03 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Hor3x)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hor3x%29) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 18:03 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Hor3x)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hor3x%29) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 18:02 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Hor3x)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hor3x%29) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [222](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/222) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 17:08 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [222](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/222) $123 $1,667 13.52x 2026-11-05 17:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=imperial-joker)

[Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) Hidden $115 $436 3.81x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $115 $1,533 13.37x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) Hidden $115 $9.93 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $115 $1,533 13.37x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) Hidden $115 $5.31 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) Hidden $115 $4.18 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Headhunter (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headhunter-foil) [RzygorzutCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RzygorzutCS2.ME) $115 $45.59 0.40x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-k-foil) Hidden $115 $6.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[Sticker | New Sheriff (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-new-sheriff-foil) Hidden $115 $9.84 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[Sticker | Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) [RzygorzutCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RzygorzutCS2.ME) $115 $115 1.00x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $114 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $123 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 4.2% exotic 29.2% red 12.5% pink 12.5% Mythical 8.3% violet 16.7% remarkable 8.3% blue 4.2% Rare 4.2% best hit $1,667 (13.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt