---
title: "IMPERIAL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "IMPERIAL ($5.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 79.31% over 15.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [IMPERIAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · IMPERIAL

A case on Casehug (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.38 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.31% · 15.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.79% ±12.40 1,415 openings

7 days · 79.33% ±4.07 13.5K openings

30 days · 79.31% ±3.78 15.8K openings

since tracking started · 79.31% ±3.78 15.8K openings

67.5% 80.8% 94.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.54% – 83.09%, 15,794 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=24h) | 1,415 | 80.79% ±12.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=7d) | 13.5K | 79.33% ±4.07 | −3.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial) | 15.8K | 79.31% ±3.78 | −4.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/imperial?window=all) | 15.8K | 79.31% ±3.78 | −4.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,533 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 5,882 | $436 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 1,613 | $115 | 1.6% | 7 | 9.8 | 0.71× |
| [Sticker \| rox (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 1,370 | $97.49 | 1.6% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| m0NESY (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-m0nesy-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 725 | $50.96 | 1.6% | 0 | 21.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Headhunter (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headhunter-foil) | 1 in 649 | $45.59 | 1.6% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 357 | $24.98 | 1.6% | 42 | 44.3 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Flame Tier6 (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flame-tier6-holo) | 1 in 19 | $17.18 | 20.6% | 869 | 828.8 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) | 1 in 60 | $9.93 | 3.8% | 268 | 261.8 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| New Sheriff (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-new-sheriff-foil) | 1 in 60 | $9.84 | 3.8% | 256 | 264.3 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Global Elite (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-global-elite-foil) | 1 in 55 | $9.12 | 3.8% | 286 | 285.1 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Tyloo (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 55 | $9.09 | 3.8% | 0 | 286.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Emperor (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-emperor-foil) | 1 in 51 | $8.43 | 3.8% | 346 | 308.3 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $8.26 | 3.8% | 0 | 314.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 21 | $6.32 | 6.9% | 777 | 756.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Bosh (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bosh-holo) | 1 in 19 | $5.63 | 6.9% | 897 | 848.8 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) | 1 in 18 | $5.31 | 6.9% | 951 | 899.7 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) | 1 in 11 | $4.35 | 9.4% | 1,821 | 1492.0 | 1.22× |
| [Sticker \| Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) | 1 in 10 | $4.18 | 9.4% | 1,521 | 1550.5 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 1 in 36 | $3.61 | 2.3% | 467 | 434.3 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 28 | $2.40 | 1.9% | 0 | 554.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Eco Rush sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eco-rush) | 10.8% | $0.37 | 0.9% | 1,876 | 1703.1 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) | 11.8% | $0.32 | 0.9% | 2,032 | 1858.0 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Run T, Run sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-run-t-run) | 19.3% | $0.14 | 0.6% | 3,373 | 3049.0 | 1.11× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/imperial`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) [el ciapaco](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/el%20ciapaco) $5.00 $444 88.74x 2026-11-09 22:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=imperial)

[Sticker | Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Sticker | Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) Hidden $5.00 $4.18 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Fancy Koi (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi-foil) [兔子 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E5%85%94%E5%AD%90%20skins.army) $5.00 $4.35 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Run T, Run sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-run-t-run) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $5.00 $0.14 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) [Shuriken](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Shuriken) $5.00 $4.18 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Flame Tier6 (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flame-tier6-holo) Hidden $5.00 $17.18 3.44x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Eco Rush sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eco-rush) [兔子 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E5%85%94%E5%AD%90%20skins.army) $5.00 $0.37 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Run T, Run sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-run-t-run) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $5.00 $0.14 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Lambda (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lambda-holo) [Shuriken](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Shuriken) $5.00 $4.18 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | Bosh (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bosh-holo) Hidden $5.00 $5.63 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 87.21% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.00 | 87.26% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.17% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.14% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.00 | 87.37% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.52% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.52% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 87.45% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.32% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% exotic 14.3% red 3.7% pink 11.5% Mythical 6.9% violet 19.0% remarkable 14.5% blue 10.8% Rare 19.3% best hit $444 (88.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt