---
title: "INSECTOR JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "INSECTOR JOKER ($106.06) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 61 items with odds, observed 78.62% over 215 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [INSECTOR JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · INSECTOR JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=all)

Price · $106.06

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $92.80 from 61 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.62% · 215 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 84.41% ±24.11 187 openings

30 days · 78.62% ±22.45 215 openings

since tracking started · 78.62% ±22.45 215 openings

34.5% 92.8% 151.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=24h) | 33 | 92.89% ±57.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=7d) | 187 | 84.41% ±24.1 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker) | 215 | 78.62% ±22.4 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/insector-joker?window=all) | 215 | 78.62% ±22.4 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $702 | 28.0% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 27 | $634 | 25.3% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 27 | $305 | 12.2% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $219 | 8.8% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $131 | 5.2% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $121 | 4.8% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $96.01 | 3.8% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 4) weapon · red · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-4) | 1 in 27 | $87.73 | 3.5% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $64.89 | 2.6% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $46.49 | 1.9% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $24.74 | 1.0% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $19.72 | 0.8% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $13.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $13.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $9.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $8.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $7.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $6.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $6.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $6.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $5.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $5.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $4.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $4.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $4.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.10 | 0.2% | 15 | 8.9 | 1.69× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $3.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $3.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $3.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $3.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $2.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $2.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $2.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.50 | 0.1% | 17 | 8.9 | 1.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $1.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $1.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/insector-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [DominatorWojciech](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DominatorWojciech) $107 $712 6.63x 2026-11-03 05:40 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Montana) $106 $702 6.62x 2026-11-10 12:09 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $702 6.62x 2026-11-10 12:06 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $107 $702 6.55x 2026-11-09 14:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $107 $702 6.55x 2026-11-09 11:54 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $107 $702 6.55x 2026-11-09 10:05 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $702 6.62x 2026-11-10 20:14 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $107 $699 6.55x 2026-11-08 23:07 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $681 6.41x 2026-11-05 13:23 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $107 $644 6.00x 2026-11-07 21:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=insector-joker)

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $106 $24.74 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) Hidden $106 $121 1.14x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $106 $24.74 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love) [YnS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/YnS) $106 $4.60 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $106 $21.27 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [TR(8SENPAİ7](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TR%288SENPA%C4%B07) $106 $24.08 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $106 $634 5.98x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro) Hidden $106 $0.74 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) [Eugeniusz Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Eugeniusz%20Krab) $106 $129 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $106 $1.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 61 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 3.7% covert 29.6% red 3.7% classified 9.3% #d32ee6 4.4% Mythical 1.9% Legendary 8.7% pink 12.2% Classified 2.5% restricted 10.2% blueLight 3.7% #8847ff 0.9% violet 1.9% blue 4.4% Rare 1.5% #4b69ff 0.7% milspec 0.7% best hit $712 (6.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt