---
title: "ISAMU V1 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ISAMU V1 JOKER ($17.53) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 53 items with odds, observed 86.58% over 8,239 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ISAMU V1 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ISAMU V1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=all)

Price · $17.53

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $15.34 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.58% · 8,239 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.31% ±18.14 775 openings

7 days · 86.94% ±6.19 6,584 openings

30 days · 86.58% ±5.54 8,239 openings

since tracking started · 86.58% ±5.54 8,239 openings

59.5% 78.3% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=24h) | 775 | 78.31% ±18.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=7d) | 6,584 | 86.94% ±6.19 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker) | 8,239 | 86.58% ±5.54 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/isamu-v1-joker?window=all) | 8,239 | 86.58% ±5.54 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $217 | 47.1% | 270 | 274.6 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $136 | 29.5% | 272 | 274.6 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $49.66 | 10.8% | 285 | 274.6 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $30.05 | 6.5% | 259 | 274.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $5.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 137.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $4.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $3.64 | 0.3% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $3.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $3.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 137.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.30 | 0.5% | 242 | 274.6 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 137.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $1.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.33 | 0.3% | 271 | 274.6 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.30 | 0.3% | 304 | 274.6 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $1.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $0.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.90 | 0.2% | 249 | 274.6 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $0.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $0.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 68.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.54 | 0.1% | 297 | 274.6 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 295 | 274.6 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 91.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 284 | 274.7 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 281 | 274.7 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 255 | 274.7 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 137.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 292 | 274.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 276 | 274.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/isamu-v1-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=isamu-v1-joker)

[SG 553 | Danger Close weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close) Hidden $17.53 $0.48 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:57 UTC

[P250 | Bullfrog weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog) Hidden $17.53 $0.54 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:57 UTC

[MAG-7 | MAGnitude weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude) Hidden $17.53 $0.52 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close) [✟ EmPtyK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9C%9F%20EmPtyK) $17.53 $0.48 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $17.53 $217 12.36x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) Hidden $17.53 $30.05 1.71x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) Hidden $17.53 $0.90 0.05x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

[P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) [✟ EmPtyK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9C%9F%20EmPtyK) $17.53 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

[P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.53 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

[M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) Hidden $17.53 $1.33 0.08x 2026-11-12 04:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $17.53 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $17.89 | 87.48% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $18.34 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $18.17 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $17.86 | 87.52% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $17.80 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $18.10 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $17.92 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $18.06 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $17.92 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $18.06 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $18.24 | 87.52% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $18.29 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $18.24 | 87.52% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $18.15 | 87.48% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $18.24 | 87.52% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $17.88 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $17.88 | 85.69% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $18.12 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $18.48 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $18.43 | 87.50% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.0% classified 3.3% restricted 10.0% pink 3.3% Mythical 12.8% violet 7.8% #8847ff 6.1% mil spec 5.0% blue 25.0% Rare 3.3% #4b69ff 3.3% milspec 3.3% blueLight 6.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt