---
title: "JAHREIN JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "JAHREIN JOKER ($506.09) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 102.24% over 492 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T10:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [JAHREIN JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · JAHREIN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=all)

Price · $506.09

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $442.83 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.24% · 492 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.43% ±33.23 111 openings

7 days · 98.43% ±17.57 394 openings

30 days · 102.24% ±15.70 492 openings

since tracking started · 102.24% ±15.70 492 openings

49.5% 84.0% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=24h) | 111 | 83.43% ±33.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=7d) | 394 | 98.43% ±17.6 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker) | 492 | 102.24% ±15.7 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein-joker?window=all) | 492 | 102.24% ±15.7 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 497 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $3,123 | 28.2% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2,755 | 24.9% | 26 | 19.9 | 1.31× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $2,268 | 20.5% | 28 | 19.9 | 1.41× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,360 | 12.3% | 14 | 19.9 | 0.70× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $650 | 5.9% | 17 | 19.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $569 | 5.1% | 35 | 19.9 | 1.76× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $57.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $57.10 | 0.5% | 15 | 19.9 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $56.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $53.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $51.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $43.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $42.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $41.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $41.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $35.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $30.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $24.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $23.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $22.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $22.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $20.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $20.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $18.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $17.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $17.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $15.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $14.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $13.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $13.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $9.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $9.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $9.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.42 | 0.1% | 18 | 19.9 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $3.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3.85 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $3.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $2.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $2.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $2.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $1.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $1.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.61 | 0.0% | 10 | 19.9 | 0.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $1.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $1.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/jahrein-joker`, 12 Nov, 08:52 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [co tam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/co%20tam) $512 $3,155 6.16x 2026-11-08 16:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $513 $3,155 6.16x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $521 $3,153 6.06x 2026-11-05 17:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $521 $3,153 6.06x 2026-11-05 17:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $521 $3,153 6.06x 2026-11-05 17:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $521 $3,153 6.06x 2026-11-03 23:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $510 $3,131 6.14x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [jamesbond007](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jamesbond007) $510 $3,131 6.14x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $510 $3,131 6.14x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $510 $3,131 6.14x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=jahrein-joker)

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $506 $569 1.12x 2026-11-11 23:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice) Hidden $506 $6.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) Hidden $506 $4.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:37 UTC

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $506 $5.12 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:37 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) Hidden $506 $55.74 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon) Hidden $506 $13.21 0.03x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice) Hidden $506 $6.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $506 $41.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $506 $57.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) Hidden $506 $41.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $506 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $510 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $512 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $511 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $512 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $512 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $513 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $513 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $519 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $521 | 87.50% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.7% Ancient 1.3% #ffd700 4.0% red 9.3% classified 14.3% rare 1.3% pink 15.7% #eb4b4b 1.3% violet 5.3% restricted 5.3% mil spec 1.6% blue 4.8% Classified 2.0% milspec 0.8% Rare 0.8% #8847ff 5.3% best hit $3,155 (6.16x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt