---
title: "JAHREIN case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "JAHREIN ($15.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 82.59% over 7,868 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [JAHREIN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · JAHREIN

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=all)

Price · $15.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $13.13 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.59% · 7,868 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.55% ±13.67 1,005 openings

7 days · 82.57% ±5.35 6,698 openings

30 days · 82.59% ±4.95 7,868 openings

since tracking started · 82.59% ±4.95 7,868 openings

69.0% 83.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=24h) | 1,005 | 83.55% ±13.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=7d) | 6,698 | 82.57% ±5.35 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein) | 7,868 | 82.59% ±4.95 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jahrein?window=all) | 7,868 | 82.59% ±4.95 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,881 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,139 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,799 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,286 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,353 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $663 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $571 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $56.52 | 2.7% | 58 | 49.7 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $54.84 | 2.6% | 0 | 49.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $53.77 | 2.7% | 0 | 52.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $53.32 | 2.0% | 0 | 38.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $51.50 | 2.8% | 0 | 56.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $44.56 | 2.6% | 0 | 61.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $44.12 | 2.7% | 0 | 63.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $42.49 | 2.8% | 0 | 67.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $38.45 | 2.8% | 0 | 74.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $35.83 | 2.9% | 0 | 83.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $32.02 | 6.8% | 0 | 219.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $24.08 | 4.9% | 0 | 212.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $23.06 | 4.5% | 0 | 201.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $22.66 | 4.6% | 0 | 208.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $22.47 | 3.2% | 0 | 148.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $20.78 | 4.0% | 0 | 198.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $20.00 | 4.1% | 0 | 214.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $19.29 | 4.3% | 0 | 228.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $18.23 | 3.2% | 0 | 178.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $17.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 32.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $15.80 | 5.0% | 0 | 328.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $14.21 | 1.3% | 0 | 96.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $13.94 | 1.7% | 0 | 126.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $13.05 | 1.3% | 0 | 101.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $13.02 | 1.7% | 0 | 138.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.10 | 1.8% | 0 | 156.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $11.25 | 2.0% | 0 | 179.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $10.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $9.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $9.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 18.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.50 | 1.3% | 0 | 159.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.49 | 1.3% | 0 | 159.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $7.42 | 2.4% | 351 | 335.7 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $6.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 57.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $5.74 | 0.9% | 0 | 155.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.24 | 0.5% | 0 | 113.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.11 | 1.0% | 0 | 248.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $4.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 120.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $4.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 122.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $3.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 63.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 98.5 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $3.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 134.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 159.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $2.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 176.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 119.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $1.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 165.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $1.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 165.5 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.61 | 1.0% | 653 | 619.4 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 283.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 319.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 469.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/jahrein`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $648 43.23x 2026-11-07 22:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=jahrein)

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) Hidden $15.00 $4.74 0.32x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $15.00 $7.42 0.49x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [J3illie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/J3illie) $15.00 $7.42 0.49x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) Hidden $15.00 $1.71 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $15.00 $7.42 0.49x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) [J3illie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/J3illie) $15.00 $1.71 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) Hidden $15.00 $35.93 2.40x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $15.00 $7.42 0.49x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [J3illie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/J3illie) $15.00 $4.49 0.30x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade) Hidden $15.00 $1.76 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $15.00 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $15.00 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $15.00 | 87.34% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $15.00 | 87.49% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $15.00 | 87.52% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $15.00 | 87.41% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $15.00 | 87.48% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $15.00 | 87.41% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $15.00 | 87.62% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $15.00 | 87.44% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $15.00 | 87.61% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $15.00 | 87.42% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $15.00 | 87.29% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $15.00 | 87.23% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $15.00 | 87.63% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $15.00 | 87.63% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $15.00 | 87.61% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $15.00 | 87.75% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% #ffd700 0.6% Ancient 0.6% red 6.1% classified 22.5% rare 2.8% pink 24.3% #eb4b4b 2.3% violet 10.3% restricted 4.3% mil spec 2.3% blue 6.4% Classified 2.0% milspec 0.8% Rare 1.5% #8847ff 11.5% best hit $648 (43.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt