---
title: "JASONPLAY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "JASONPLAY JOKER ($87.44) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 63 items with odds, observed 91.69% over 426 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [JASONPLAY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · JASONPLAY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=all)

Price · $87.44

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $76.51 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.69% · 426 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 87.79% ±9.92 325 openings

30 days · 91.69% ±8.66 426 openings

since tracking started · 91.69% ±8.66 426 openings

59.0% 87.8% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=24h) | 40 | 87.80% ±28.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=7d) | 325 | 87.79% ±9.92 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker) | 426 | 91.69% ±8.66 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay-joker?window=all) | 426 | 91.69% ±8.66 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 443 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $287 | 16.3% | 22 | 19.3 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $267 | 5.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $228 | 4.3% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $213 | 4.0% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $163 | 9.3% | 25 | 19.3 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $154 | 4.4% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $153 | 4.3% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $149 | 8.4% | 13 | 19.3 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $138 | 3.9% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $129 | 3.7% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $126 | 3.6% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $125 | 7.1% | 23 | 19.3 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $122 | 3.5% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $115 | 2.2% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $92.31 | 1.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $79.09 | 1.5% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $76.24 | 1.4% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $75.41 | 1.4% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $59.33 | 1.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $58.81 | 1.7% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $58.34 | 1.7% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $56.47 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $50.89 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $46.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $38.86 | 0.7% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $37.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $36.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $36.11 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $34.26 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $32.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $29.48 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $21.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $19.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $16.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $15.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $15.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $15.25 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $14.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $14.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $9.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $6.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $6.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $6.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $6.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $6.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $5.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $5.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $5.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $4.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $4.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $3.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $3.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/jasonplay-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=jasonplay-joker)

[AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) Hidden $87.44 $40.18 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $87.44 $125 1.43x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) Hidden $87.44 $6.42 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir) Hidden $87.44 $58.58 0.67x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir) [jose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jose) $87.44 $70.98 0.81x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $86.20 $14.94 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $86.20 $3.99 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) Hidden $86.20 $15.58 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [sztamaxyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sztamaxyz) $86.20 $3.99 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $86.20 $4.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $87.44 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $86.20 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $87.26 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $87.97 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $86.88 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $88.56 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $87.77 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $88.61 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $87.77 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $89.27 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $88.61 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $88.77 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $88.71 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $89.47 | 87.50% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.0% extraordinary 8.7% red 5.1% Covert 1.1% classified 8.7% Ancient 4.7% Legendary 6.9% #d32ee6 2.2% pink 15.9% Classified 1.1% restricted 3.0% violet 5.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt