---
title: "JASONPLAY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "JASONPLAY ($8.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 63 items with odds, observed 86.94% over 6,515 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [JASONPLAY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · JASONPLAY

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.00 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.94% · 6,515 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.96% ±8.07 917 openings

7 days · 86.60% ±3.14 5,573 openings

30 days · 86.94% ±2.89 6,515 openings

since tracking started · 86.94% ±2.89 6,515 openings

82.0% 90.8% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=24h) | 917 | 90.96% ±8.07 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=7d) | 5,573 | 86.60% ±3.14 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay) | 6,515 | 86.94% ±2.89 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/jasonplay?window=all) | 6,515 | 86.94% ±2.89 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,525 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $269 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $268 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $222 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $217 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $164 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $153 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $150 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $143 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $139 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $131 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $128 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $125 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 2,632 | $122 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $113 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $85.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $75.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $74.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 2,326 | $71.37 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $60.74 | 0.6% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,299 | $58.55 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $57.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $56.82 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $51.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $44.05 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $40.36 | 0.7% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $38.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,408 | $37.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $37.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 1,471 | $35.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,266 | $33.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $30.76 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $19.95 | 4.3% | 0 | 97.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $19.72 | 4.3% | 0 | 100.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $16.55 | 2.9% | 0 | 80.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $15.65 | 6.5% | 0 | 188.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $15.51 | 6.5% | 0 | 192.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $14.84 | 3.3% | 0 | 100.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $14.49 | 3.3% | 0 | 105.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $13.87 | 3.5% | 0 | 114.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $8.90 | 24.8% | 0 | 1270.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $7.49 | 3.6% | 0 | 220.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.56 | 6.9% | 0 | 477.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $6.41 | 7.0% | 0 | 499.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $6.07 | 0.9% | 0 | 67.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 184 | $6.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $5.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 54.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $5.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 60.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $4.94 | 0.8% | 0 | 72.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $4.70 | 1.1% | 0 | 102.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $4.21 | 0.6% | 0 | 63.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $4.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 133.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $3.96 | 1.2% | 0 | 136.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $3.49 | 0.7% | 0 | 85.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $3.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 87.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 143.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 196.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 218.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 250.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 260.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 270.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 329.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 382.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/jasonplay`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=jasonplay)

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) Hidden $8.00 $0.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber) Hidden $8.00 $14.81 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) Hidden $8.00 $0.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $8.00 $8.45 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) Hidden $8.00 $0.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $8.00 $0.49 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) Hidden $8.00 $0.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $8.00 $0.37 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) Hidden $8.00 $6.48 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[P90 | Deathgaze weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze) Hidden $8.00 $6.51 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $8.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $8.00 | 87.35% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $8.00 | 87.21% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $8.00 | 87.53% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $8.00 | 87.75% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $8.00 | 87.42% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $8.00 | 87.36% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $8.00 | 87.42% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $8.00 | 87.47% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $8.00 | 87.36% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $8.00 | 87.30% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $8.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $8.00 | 87.70% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $8.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $8.00 | 87.70% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $8.00 | 87.28% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $8.00 | 87.46% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.62% | 63 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $8.00 | 87.44% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.2% Covert 0.0% classified 14.8% Ancient 0.3% Legendary 31.1% pink 17.3% #d32ee6 2.6% Classified 0.8% restricted 11.6% violet 20.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt