---
title: "KAERYKA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "KAERYKA JOKER ($200.10) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 95.22% over 481 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KAERYKA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KAERYKA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=all)

Price · $200.10

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.08 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.22% · 481 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.35% ±41.47 130 openings

7 days · 93.07% ±23.09 410 openings

30 days · 95.22% ±21.30 481 openings

since tracking started · 95.22% ±21.30 481 openings

42.0% 84.2% 126.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=24h) | 130 | 84.35% ±41.5 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=7d) | 410 | 93.07% ±23.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker) | 481 | 95.22% ±21.3 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka-joker?window=all) | 481 | 95.22% ±21.3 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 484 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2,201 | 54.6% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $772 | 19.2% | 31 | 21.0 | 1.47× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $615 | 15.3% | 16 | 21.0 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 69 | $133 | 1.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 23 | $126 | 3.1% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 69 | $101 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-2) | 1 in 69 | $90.29 | 0.7% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $59.65 | 0.7% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $48.62 | 0.6% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $41.31 | 0.5% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $39.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $36.41 | 0.9% | 13 | 21.0 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $26.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $22.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $15.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $15.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $14.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $13.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $10.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $8.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $8.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $7.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $7.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $7.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $7.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $7.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $6.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $6.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $4.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $4.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $3.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $3.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $3.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $3.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $3.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $3.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $3.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $2.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $2.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome-holo) | 1 in 23 | $2.77 | 0.1% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $1.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.21 | 0.0% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $1.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $1.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 16 | 21.0 | 0.76× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/kaeryka-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [LYSY\_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY) $207 $2,292 11.06x 2026-11-07 19:36 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [dabsky](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dabsky) $207 $2,292 11.06x 2026-11-07 17:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $207 $2,292 11.06x 2026-11-07 15:38 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-06 18:21 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [guzik](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/guzik) $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-06 13:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [THEETO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/THEETO) $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-06 12:57 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-06 12:57 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $208 $2,291 11.04x 2026-11-05 22:07 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $205 $2,270 11.07x 2026-11-05 12:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=kaeryka-joker)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $200 $126 0.63x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $200 $1.21 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $200 $6.16 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) Hidden $200 $5.44 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir) [A0VX| AX1ON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/A0VX%7C%20AX1ON) $200 $50.48 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni) Hidden $200 $1.86 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $200 $1.86 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-phase-2) Hidden $200 $108 0.54x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $200 $5.44 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $772 3.86x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $204 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $205 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $202 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $204 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $205 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $207 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $207 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $204 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $207 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $208 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $208 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $205 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $205 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $208 | 87.50% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.5% red 1.4% Ancient 10.9% pink 10.5% classified 8.3% Legendary 6.2% #d32ce6 2.9% Mythical 3.6% rare 1.4% #d32ee6 1.1% blue 2.9% violet 21.7% uncommon 1.1% Rare 1.4% #8847ff 2.9% common 1.1% best hit $2,292 (11.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt