---
title: "KAERYKA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KAERYKA ($7.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 86.95% over 12.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KAERYKA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KAERYKA

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=all)

Price · $7.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.56 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.95% · 12.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.73% ±13.13 1,963 openings

7 days · 87.37% ±5.53 11K openings

30 days · 86.95% ±5.14 12.7K openings

since tracking started · 86.95% ±5.14 12.7K openings

79.0% 92.8% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=24h) | 1,963 | 92.73% ±13.1 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=7d) | 11K | 87.37% ±5.53 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka) | 12.7K | 86.95% ±5.14 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kaeryka?window=all) | 12.7K | 86.95% ±5.14 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,262 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $793 | 1.6% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $616 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 4,762 | $134 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,235 | $123 | 1.5% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 2,857 | $102 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-2) | 1 in 2,326 | $90.99 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,370 | $56.82 | 0.6% | 0 | 9.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $45.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 12.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $40.36 | 0.9% | 0 | 18.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $38.14 | 1.5% | 39 | 33.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 699 | $38.08 | 0.8% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $26.30 | 7.0% | 0 | 223.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $22.44 | 13.0% | 0 | 484.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $15.18 | 5.5% | 0 | 304.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $14.82 | 5.7% | 0 | 319.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $14.67 | 5.7% | 0 | 326.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $12.78 | 2.5% | 0 | 161.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $11.45 | 4.6% | 0 | 339.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $8.86 | 3.2% | 0 | 302.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $7.89 | 1.8% | 0 | 193.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.65 | 3.6% | 0 | 392.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $7.60 | 5.3% | 0 | 589.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $7.60 | 5.3% | 0 | 589.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $7.34 | 0.9% | 0 | 106.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $7.10 | 0.9% | 0 | 106.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $6.73 | 0.8% | 0 | 97.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $6.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 75.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $4.90 | 0.9% | 0 | 152.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.88 | 1.0% | 0 | 174.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.80 | 1.1% | 0 | 184.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.45 | 0.9% | 0 | 174.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $4.24 | 1.1% | 0 | 219.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $4.16 | 1.1% | 0 | 218.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $4.08 | 0.7% | 0 | 134.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 184 | $3.86 | 0.3% | 0 | 69.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $3.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 157.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $3.60 | 0.7% | 0 | 160.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $3.56 | 1.2% | 0 | 280.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $3.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 157.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $3.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 157.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $3.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 103.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome-holo) | 1 in 21 | $2.88 | 2.1% | 631 | 605.5 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $2.78 | 0.2% | 0 | 71.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $2.71 | 0.7% | 0 | 207.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $1.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 241.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $1.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 313.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.29 | 1.3% | 903 | 834.9 | 1.08× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.24 | 1.3% | 879 | 848.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $1.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 377.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $1.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 242.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $1.15 | 1.2% | 849 | 874.3 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $1.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 251.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $1.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 294.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 535.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/kaeryka`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $805 107.3x 2026-11-05 11:14 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $793 105.8x 2026-11-10 20:12 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [kapodeputant](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kapodeputant) $7.50 $793 105.8x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $629 83.88x 2026-11-09 23:26 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $602 80.30x 2026-11-04 17:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=kaeryka)

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) Hidden $7.50 $6.36 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni) Hidden $7.50 $1.52 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) Hidden $7.50 $6.36 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [KIBORG2002skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KIBORG2002skins.army) $7.50 $4.10 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare) Hidden $7.50 $10.75 1.43x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [motusszrotus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/motusszrotus) $7.50 $6.06 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [Martina Smeraldi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Martina%20Smeraldi) $7.50 $4.10 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Sticker | Chrome Dome (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome-holo) [KiraRosieskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KiraRosieskins.army) $7.50 $2.88 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue) Hidden $7.50 $7.24 0.97x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $1.24 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.50 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $7.50 | 87.85% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $7.50 | 87.15% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $7.50 | 87.61% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $7.50 | 87.43% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.50 | 87.03% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $7.50 | 87.43% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $7.50 | 87.11% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $7.50 | 87.67% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $7.50 | 87.33% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $7.50 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $7.50 | 87.69% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.50 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.50 | 87.29% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.50 | 86.34% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $7.50 | 87.29% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.50 | 87.72% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $7.50 | 87.70% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $7.50 | 87.21% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $7.50 | 87.30% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% red 0.0% Ancient 0.6% pink 17.8% classified 19.0% Legendary 7.2% Mythical 3.6% #d32ce6 3.0% rare 0.8% #d32ee6 1.2% blue 4.7% violet 31.5% uncommon 0.6% Rare 1.9% #8847ff 5.4% common 2.3% best hit $805 (107.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt