---
title: "KINGDOM JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "KINGDOM JOKER ($483.08) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 94.44% over 149 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KINGDOM JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KINGDOM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=all)

Price · $483.08

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $422.69 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.44% · 149 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 93.43% ±22.98 142 openings

30 days · 94.44% ±22.43 149 openings

since tracking started · 94.44% ±22.43 149 openings

-0.5% 94.8% 190.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=24h) | 4 | 54.13% ±135.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=7d) | 142 | 93.43% ±23.0 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker) | 149 | 94.44% ±22.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom-joker?window=all) | 149 | 94.44% ±22.4 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $2,364 | 19.3% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $2,296 | 18.7% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.90× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $2,285 | 18.6% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 29 | $621 | 5.1% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $594 | 4.8% | 1 | 5.3 | 0.19× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $501 | 4.1% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 29 | $499 | 4.1% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 29 | $446 | 3.6% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $309 | 2.5% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $304 | 2.5% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 29 | $298 | 2.4% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 29 | $252 | 2.1% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $157 | 1.3% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $152 | 1.2% | 11 | 5.3 | 2.09× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $151 | 1.2% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 29 | $148 | 1.2% | 11 | 5.3 | 2.09× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 29 | $128 | 1.0% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-well-worn-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $126 | 1.0% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $123 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $123 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-1) | 1 in 58 | $122 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 4) weapon · red · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $107 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-1) | 1 in 58 | $91.57 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) | 1 in 29 | $89.86 | 0.7% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $21.04 | 0.2% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $12.45 | 0.1% | 1 | 5.3 | 0.19× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $12.26 | 0.1% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $12.24 | 0.1% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $10.27 | 0.1% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $9.13 | 0.1% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.71× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/kingdom-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $495 $2,421 4.89x 2026-11-05 20:35 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Bubson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubson) $495 $2,421 4.89x 2026-11-05 20:35 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $495 $2,421 4.89x 2026-11-05 20:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $495 $2,421 4.89x 2026-11-05 20:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [LiN \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LiN%20_lt%3B3) $499 $2,421 4.85x 2026-11-03 20:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $494 $2,419 4.90x 2026-11-06 21:04 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [PanLeny CS2.MEskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PanLeny%20CS2.MEskins.army) $499 $2,411 4.83x 2026-11-05 16:56 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $499 $2,410 4.83x 2026-11-05 16:56 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [armataPowPow skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/armataPowPow%20skins.army) $499 $2,410 4.83x 2026-11-04 22:59 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $499 $2,403 4.81x 2026-11-04 12:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=kingdom-joker)

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $483 $309 0.64x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $483 $621 1.29x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) weapon · red · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-phase-1) Hidden $483 $107 0.22x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $483 $9.13 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $488 $155 0.32x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) Hidden $488 $9.38 0.02x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $488 $2,312 4.74x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [roo\_hatch](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roo_hatch) $488 $123 0.25x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $488 $148 0.30x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $488 $21.16 0.04x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $483 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $488 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $495 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $495 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $494 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $495 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $499 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $499 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $499 | 87.50% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 62.1% red 13.8% gold 3.4% mil spec 3.4% restricted 3.4% blue 13.8% best hit $2,421 (4.89x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt