---
title: "KINGDOM case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KINGDOM ($46.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.44% over 3,508 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KINGDOM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KINGDOM

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=all)

Price · $46.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $40.69 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.44% · 3,508 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.78% ±19.73 353 openings

7 days · 86.78% ±6.83 3,132 openings

30 days · 87.44% ±6.46 3,508 openings

since tracking started · 87.44% ±6.46 3,508 openings

79.5% 101.3% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=24h) | 353 | 102.78% ±19.7 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=7d) | 3,132 | 86.78% ±6.83 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom) | 3,508 | 87.44% ±6.46 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/kingdom?window=all) | 3,508 | 87.44% ±6.46 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 4,167 | $2,364 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,296 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,285 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,099 | $621 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,053 | $594 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.50× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 885 | $501 | 1.4% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.51× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 885 | $499 | 1.4% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 794 | $446 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 549 | $309 | 1.4% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 543 | $304 | 1.4% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.86× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 532 | $298 | 1.4% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.52× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 450 | $252 | 1.4% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 133 | $157 | 2.9% | 18 | 26.4 | 0.68× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 129 | $152 | 2.9% | 30 | 27.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 128 | $151 | 2.9% | 23 | 27.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $148 | 2.9% | 25 | 28.0 | 0.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 109 | $128 | 2.9% | 25 | 32.3 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-well-worn-phase-2) | 1 in 106 | $126 | 2.9% | 30 | 33.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 104 | $123 | 2.9% | 34 | 33.7 | 1.01× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 104 | $123 | 2.9% | 29 | 33.8 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-1) | 1 in 242 | $122 | 1.2% | 0 | 14.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 4) weapon · red · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-4) | 1 in 19 | $107 | 13.7% | 154 | 183.3 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $91.57 | 7.9% | 0 | 122.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) | 1 in 16 | $89.86 | 13.7% | 189 | 218.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 10.3% | $21.04 | 5.3% | 353 | 359.9 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 12.7% | $12.45 | 3.9% | 447 | 444.0 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 12.7% | $12.26 | 3.8% | 464 | 446.7 | 1.04× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 12.7% | $12.24 | 3.8% | 455 | 447.0 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 13.7% | $10.27 | 3.4% | 477 | 479.5 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 14.3% | $9.13 | 3.2% | 546 | 502.6 | 1.09× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/kingdom`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $46.50 $2,363 50.82x 2026-11-08 08:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $46.50 $2,312 49.72x 2026-11-09 15:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $46.50 $2,296 49.38x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [C1N0](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/C1N0) $46.50 $648 13.93x 2026-11-03 23:54 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Matuss Natsuki CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matuss%20Natsuki%20CS2.ME) $46.50 $647 13.91x 2026-11-04 18:25 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Wojciech Suchodolski CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wojciech%20Suchodolski%20CSGOSKINS) $46.50 $621 13.36x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Ta(h)riK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ta%28h%29riK) $46.50 $615 13.22x 2026-11-06 13:37 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $46.50 $613 13.18x 2026-11-10 08:16 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $46.50 $613 13.18x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Puzonik](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Puzonik) $46.50 $611 13.13x 2026-11-07 18:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=kingdom)

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $46.50 $12.24 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $46.50 $252 5.42x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1) weapon · red · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-phase-1) Hidden $46.50 $94.84 2.04x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $46.50 $12.24 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $46.50 $21.04 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $46.50 $12.24 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $46.50 $21.04 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $46.50 $12.24 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $46.50 $12.26 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) Hidden $46.50 $89.86 1.93x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $46.50 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $46.50 | 87.69% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $46.50 | 87.43% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $46.50 | 87.46% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $46.50 | 87.37% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $46.50 | 87.79% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $46.50 | 87.91% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $46.50 | 87.38% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $46.50 | 87.70% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $46.50 | 87.94% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $46.50 | 87.04% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $46.50 | 87.58% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $46.50 | 87.83% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $46.50 | 87.39% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $46.50 | 87.31% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $46.50 | 87.49% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.9% red 12.5% gold 0.2% mil spec 10.3% restricted 12.7% blue 53.5% best hit $2,363 (50.82x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt