---
title: "KNIFE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "KNIFE JOKER ($466.85) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 45 items with odds, observed 85.09% over 81 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KNIFE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KNIFE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=all)

Price · $466.85

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $408.49 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.09% · 81 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 72 openings · below min

30 days · 81 openings · below min

since tracking started · 81 openings · below min

63.0% 87.3% 111.5%

**Small sample.** 81 openings and 16.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=7d) | 72 | 88.08% ±22.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker) | 81 | 85.09% ±21.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-joker?window=all) | 81 | 85.09% ±21.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $2,801 | 15.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $1,467 | 8.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $1,140 | 6.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $1,133 | 6.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $641 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $612 | 3.3% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $595 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $570 | 3.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $497 | 2.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $487 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $464 | 2.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $433 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $420 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $412 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $398 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $386 | 2.1% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $372 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $361 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $360 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $355 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $354 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $309 | 1.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $272 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $266 | 1.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $253 | 1.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $252 | 1.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $235 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $224 | 1.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) | 1 in 45 | $223 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $208 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $198 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $177 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $172 | 0.9% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.14× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $167 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $160 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $158 | 0.9% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.14× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $147 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $140 | 0.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $124 | 0.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $123 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $89.60 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $81.46 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $48.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $48.70 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $48.35 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/knife-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $473 $2,802 5.93x 2026-11-06 18:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $474 $2,776 5.85x 2026-11-03 22:04 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $472 $2,772 5.87x 2026-11-04 20:28 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $474 $1,476 3.11x 2026-11-03 19:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [co tam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/co%20tam) $474 $1,184 2.50x 2026-11-03 14:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $473 $1,179 2.49x 2026-11-05 21:46 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [iLliGhT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/iLliGhT) $472 $1,173 2.48x 2026-11-07 21:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $473 $1,164 2.46x 2026-11-06 10:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [jajecznybudowlaniec](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jajecznybudowlaniec) $472 $1,163 2.46x 2026-11-08 20:29 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [Exa](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Exa) $468 $1,140 2.44x 2026-11-09 09:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=knife-joker)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $467 $354 0.76x 2026-11-10 03:53 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $467 $140 0.30x 2026-11-10 03:53 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [\_lt; blank \_gt;](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_lt%3B%20blank%20_gt%3B) $467 $160 0.34x 2026-11-10 03:53 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $467 $160 0.34x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $467 $235 0.50x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $467 $123 0.26x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $467 $140 0.30x 2026-11-10 01:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $467 $158 0.34x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $467 $48.35 0.10x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $467 $487 1.04x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $467 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $468 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 77.8% sunny 11.1% gold 4.4% #ffd700 4.4% Immortal 2.2% best hit $2,802 (5.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt