--- title: "KNIFE PARTY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "KNIFE PARTY JOKER ($405.05) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.92% over 793 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KNIFE PARTY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KNIFE PARTY JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=all) Price · $405.05 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $354.42 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.92% · 793 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 88.63% ±6.92 605 openings 30 days · 85.92% ±6.03 793 openings since tracking started · 85.92% ±6.03 793 openings 43.0% 69.5% 96.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=24h) | 47 | 68.55% ±24.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=7d) | 605 | 88.63% ±6.92 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker) | 793 | 85.92% ±6.03 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party-joker?window=all) | 793 | 85.92% ±6.03 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 799 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1,123 | 19.8% | 50 | 49.9 | 1.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 16 | $881 | 15.5% | 50 | 49.9 | 1.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $706 | 12.4% | 50 | 49.9 | 1.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 16 | $660 | 11.6% | 41 | 49.9 | 0.82× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 16 | $579 | 10.2% | 41 | 49.9 | 0.82× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $531 | 3.1% | 0 | 16.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 16 | $495 | 8.7% | 41 | 49.9 | 0.82× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · sunny · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 16 | $479 | 8.4% | 62 | 49.9 | 1.24× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $395 | 2.3% | 0 | 16.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $287 | 1.7% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $169 | 3.0% | 42 | 49.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $116 | 2.0% | 42 | 49.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $54.32 | 1.0% | 60 | 49.9 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.52 | 0.1% | 49 | 49.9 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 54 | 49.9 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) | 1 in 16 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 45 | 49.9 | 0.90× | | [Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 53 | 49.9 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 57 | 49.9 | 1.14× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/knife-party-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 20:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $407 $1,138 2.79x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $408 $1,135 2.78x 2026-11-10 01:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $408 $1,135 2.78x 2026-11-10 01:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $408 $1,135 2.78x 2026-11-09 13:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=knife-party-joker) [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $405 $116 0.29x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $405 $54.32 0.13x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $405 $54.32 0.13x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · sunny · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $405 $479 1.18x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $405 $3.52 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $405 $3.52 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $405 $660 1.63x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $405 $169 0.42x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $405 $169 0.42x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $405 $169 0.42x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $405 | 87.50% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $406 | 87.50% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $410 | 87.50% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $409 | 87.50% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $411 | 87.50% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $411 | 87.50% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $410 | 87.50% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $409 | 87.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 41.7% epic 8.3% sunny 6.3% gold 12.5% restricted 6.3% violet 12.5% #8847ff 6.3% blue 6.3% best hit $1,138 (2.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt