---
title: "KNIFE PARTY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "KNIFE PARTY ($5.25) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.64% over 84.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KNIFE PARTY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KNIFE PARTY

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=all)

Price · $5.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.59 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.64% · 84.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 51.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 143 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.37% ±13.51 10.7K openings

7 days · 87.14% ±5.34 69.4K openings

30 days · 87.64% ±4.84 84.8K openings

since tracking started · 87.64% ±4.84 84.8K openings

79.0% 93.3% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=24h) | 10.7K | 93.37% ±13.5 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=7d) | 69.4K | 87.14% ±5.34 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party) | 84.8K | 87.64% ±4.84 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife-party?window=all) | 84.8K | 87.64% ±4.84 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,123 | 2.4% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $881 | 3.8% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $706 | 4.6% | 21 | 25.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $660 | 5.7% | 37 | 34.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $579 | 6.3% | 57 | 42.5 | 1.34× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $531 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,429 | $495 | 7.5% | 57 | 59.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · sunny · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,250 | $479 | 8.3% | 63 | 68.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $395 | 3.4% | 0 | 34.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $287 | 3.1% | 0 | 42.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $169 | 11.0% | 248 | 254.9 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $116 | 11.1% | 315 | 373.9 | 0.84× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $54.32 | 11.0% | 595 | 790.3 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $3.52 | 7.4% | 11,904 | 8166.8 | 1.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 17.5% | $1.06 | 4.0% | 15,549 | 14846.4 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) | 22.0% | $0.67 | 3.2% | 18,064 | 18670.5 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) | 23.2% | $0.60 | 3.0% | 18,262 | 19732.8 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 25.7% | $0.49 | 2.7% | 19,701 | 21806.4 | 0.90× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/knife-party`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [WW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WW) $5.25 $1,135 216.2x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,130 215.2x 2026-11-07 23:55 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,128 214.8x 2026-11-10 18:06 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,114 212.1x 2026-11-03 22:47 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [OBEYED](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/OBEYED) $5.25 $1,111 211.7x 2026-11-04 21:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,111 211.7x 2026-11-06 22:00 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,111 211.7x 2026-11-06 16:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [$om3oneskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%24om3oneskins.army) $5.25 $1,111 211.7x 2026-11-06 15:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,111 211.6x 2026-11-08 10:42 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $1,111 211.6x 2026-11-07 20:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=knife-party)

[Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) [Edek bambus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Edek%20bambus) $5.25 $0.60 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) [Edek bambus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Edek%20bambus) $5.25 $1.06 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.25 $54.32 10.35x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $0.60 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [PowerSh00t CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PowerSh00t%20CS2.ME) $5.25 $0.49 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) [Edek bambus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Edek%20bambus) $5.25 $0.67 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $5.25 $169 32.12x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) Hidden $5.25 $0.67 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) [PowerSh00t CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PowerSh00t%20CS2.ME) $5.25 $0.60 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) [Edek bambus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Edek%20bambus) $5.25 $0.67 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $5.25 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.25 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.25 | 87.67% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $5.25 | 87.28% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.25 | 87.39% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.25 | 87.21% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $5.25 | 87.38% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.25 | 87.32% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.25 | 87.69% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $5.25 | 87.24% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.25 | 87.73% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.25 | 87.62% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.25 | 88.35% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $5.25 | 87.62% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.25 | 87.66% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.25 | 87.66% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.25 | 87.31% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.25 | 87.86% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% epic 0.0% sunny 0.1% gold 1.4% restricted 9.6% violet 43.1% #8847ff 22.0% blue 23.2% best hit $1,135 (216.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt