---
title: "KNIFE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KNIFE ($180.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.85% from 45 items with odds, observed 86.52% over 1,081 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · KNIFE

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=all)

Price · $180.00

Advertised RTP · 86.85% · EV $156.33 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.52% · 1,081 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.69% ±11.03 108 openings

7 days · 85.83% ±3.83 935 openings

30 days · 86.52% ±3.56 1,081 openings

since tracking started · 86.52% ±3.56 1,081 openings

66.0% 78.3% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=24h) | 108 | 77.69% ±11.0 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=7d) | 935 | 85.83% ±3.83 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife) | 1,081 | 86.52% ±3.56 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/knife?window=all) | 1,081 | 86.52% ±3.56 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,085 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,787 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $1,461 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $1,133 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $1,123 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 694 | $631 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 610 | $585 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $580 | 0.6% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.73× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 641 | $546 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 346 | $492 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 336 | $481 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $449 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 229 | $423 | 1.2% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $420 | 1.4% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $410 | 1.1% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $385 | 1.3% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.38× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $371 | 1.3% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $369 | 1.2% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.12× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 169 | $365 | 1.4% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $357 | 1.5% | 2 | 7.0 | 0.29× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $351 | 1.5% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.40× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $350 | 1.4% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.61× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $309 | 1.8% | 15 | 9.9 | 1.51× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $268 | 2.1% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $266 | 2.5% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $252 | 2.5% | 19 | 17.0 | 1.12× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $247 | 2.3% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.74× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $235 | 3.4% | 28 | 24.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $227 | 3.3% | 25 | 25.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) | 1 in 40 | $215 | 3.4% | 34 | 27.0 | 1.26× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $208 | 3.6% | 22 | 29.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $201 | 4.2% | 33 | 35.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $176 | 4.6% | 43 | 44.8 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $175 | 4.7% | 40 | 45.8 | 0.87× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $174 | 4.2% | 49 | 41.1 | 1.19× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $163 | 4.4% | 38 | 45.9 | 0.83× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $158 | 4.1% | 28 | 44.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $147 | 4.3% | 46 | 49.0 | 0.94× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $141 | 4.3% | 46 | 52.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $125 | 4.0% | 58 | 53.4 | 1.09× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $124 | 3.8% | 34 | 51.7 | 0.66× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $87.09 | 3.2% | 76 | 62.1 | 1.22× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $81.46 | 3.1% | 67 | 64.5 | 1.04× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $48.41 | 1.7% | 73 | 59.1 | 1.23× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $48.39 | 1.7% | 62 | 58.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $47.48 | 3.4% | 130 | 119.8 | 1.09× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/knife`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [Jadwiga skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Jadwiga%20skins.army) $180 $1,164 6.46x 2026-11-06 14:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [xaxa skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xaxa%20skins.army) $180 $1,157 6.43x 2026-11-07 03:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $180 $647 3.59x 2026-11-07 13:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) [seat leon nie maybach](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/seat%20leon%20nie%20maybach) $180 $624 3.46x 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $606 3.36x 2026-11-03 21:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $606 3.36x 2026-11-03 21:30 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $600 3.33x 2026-11-07 10:03 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Vektor\_ek\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Vektor_ek_) $180 $600 3.33x 2026-11-06 03:53 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Baiteaku](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Baiteaku) $180 $599 3.33x 2026-11-08 07:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=knife)

[★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $87.09 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $81.46 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $180 $124 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $180 $48.41 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $87.09 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $180 $252 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $180 $201 1.12x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [harnaś wiertarkaCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/harna%C5%9B%20wiertarkaCS2.ME) $180 $158 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $180 $227 1.26x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $180 $176 0.98x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $180 | 86.85% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $180 | 87.37% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $180 | 87.02% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $180 | 87.05% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $180 | 87.03% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $180 | 87.47% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $180 | 87.05% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $180 | 87.02% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $180 | 86.90% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $180 | 86.53% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $180 | 87.30% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $180 | 86.83% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $180 | 87.40% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $180 | 87.35% | 45 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $180 | 87.11% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 94.2% sunny 1.6% gold 0.5% #ffd700 0.9% Immortal 2.7% best hit $1,164 (6.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.85 on average: an expected loss of $13.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt