---
title: "LAST WISH JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LAST WISH JOKER ($594.91) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 84.04% over 238 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LAST WISH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LAST WISH JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=all)

Price · $594.91

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $520.55 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.04% · 238 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 48 openings · below min

7 days · 87.90% ±15.07 186 openings

30 days · 84.04% ±13.34 238 openings

since tracking started · 84.04% ±13.34 238 openings

56.0% 86.3% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=24h) | 48 | 86.31% ±29.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=7d) | 186 | 87.90% ±15.1 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker) | 238 | 84.04% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish-joker?window=all) | 238 | 84.04% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 10.0% | $2,038 | 39.1% | 20 | 27.6 | 0.72× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,128 | 21.7% | 32 | 27.6 | 1.16× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 10.0% | $871 | 16.7% | 38 | 27.6 | 1.38× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $506 | 9.7% | 22 | 27.6 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 10.0% | $398 | 7.6% | 32 | 27.6 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 10.0% | $149 | 2.9% | 21 | 27.6 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 10.0% | $93.90 | 1.8% | 25 | 27.6 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 10.0% | $12.44 | 0.2% | 32 | 27.6 | 1.16× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.37 | 0.2% | 28 | 27.6 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.46 | 0.0% | 26 | 27.6 | 0.94× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/last-wish-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $608 $2,093 3.44x 2026-11-04 00:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $608 $2,093 3.44x 2026-11-03 20:20 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $608 $2,093 3.44x 2026-11-03 20:17 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $602 $2,091 3.47x 2026-11-02 22:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $601 $2,087 3.47x 2026-11-06 04:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Vektor\_ek\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Vektor_ek_) $601 $2,087 3.47x 2026-11-06 04:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $605 $2,065 3.42x 2026-11-06 10:58 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [co tam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/co%20tam) $605 $2,065 3.42x 2026-11-06 10:56 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Liszka9](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Liszka9) $605 $2,065 3.42x 2026-11-04 21:01 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $602 $2,065 3.43x 2026-11-10 01:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=last-wish-joker)

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $595 $2,038 3.43x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $595 $871 1.46x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) Hidden $595 $149 0.25x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Bubson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubson) $595 $0.46 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $595 $506 0.85x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $595 $10.37 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) Hidden $595 $93.90 0.16x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Bubson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubson) $595 $2,038 3.43x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $595 $871 1.46x 2026-11-11 22:06 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) Hidden $595 $93.90 0.16x 2026-11-11 22:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $595 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $593 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $602 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $598 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $602 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $603 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $599 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $600 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $601 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $600 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $605 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $601 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $605 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $608 | 87.50% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 50.0% red 10.0% rare 10.0% classified 20.0% violet 10.0% best hit $2,093 (3.44x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt