---
title: "LAST WISH case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LAST WISH ($12.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.17% over 7,203 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LAST WISH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LAST WISH

A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.50 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.17% · 7,203 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 69.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 31.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.72% ±9.53 1,225 openings

7 days · 85.02% ±4.37 5,934 openings

30 days · 86.17% ±3.98 7,203 openings

since tracking started · 86.17% ±3.98 7,203 openings

79.5% 89.8% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=24h) | 1,225 | 89.72% ±9.53 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=7d) | 5,934 | 85.02% ±4.37 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish) | 7,203 | 86.17% ±3.98 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/last-wish?window=all) | 7,203 | 86.17% ±3.98 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,207 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,029 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,123 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $881 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $508 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $393 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $147 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $93.52 | 4.5% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 68.4% | $12.58 | 81.9% | 4,777 | 4929.6 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $10.31 | 8.5% | 684 | 622.0 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 22.4% | $0.43 | 0.9% | 1,706 | 1612.2 | 1.06× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/last-wish`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $12.00 $905 75.38x 2026-11-03 19:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $12.00 $523 43.55x 2026-11-07 00:04 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $12.00 $506 42.15x 2026-11-10 23:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=last-wish)

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [farhadbahadory307](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farhadbahadory307) $12.00 $12.58 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [farhadbahadory307](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farhadbahadory307) $12.00 $0.43 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $12.58 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $10.31 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [good](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/good) $12.00 $10.31 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [farhadbahadory307](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farhadbahadory307) $12.00 $10.31 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [farhadbahadory307](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farhadbahadory307) $12.00 $12.58 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [farhadbahadory307](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/farhadbahadory307) $12.00 $12.58 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [Kz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kz) $12.00 $12.58 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $10.31 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $12.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $12.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $12.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $12.00 | 87.41% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $12.00 | 87.98% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $12.00 | 87.81% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $12.00 | 87.43% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $12.00 | 87.59% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $12.00 | 87.46% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $12.00 | 87.43% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $12.00 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $12.00 | 87.55% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $12.00 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $12.00 | 87.45% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $12.00 | 87.46% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.81% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.1% rare 0.5% classified 77.0% violet 22.4% best hit $905 (75.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt