---
title: "LORD JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LORD JOKER ($557.14) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 92.44% over 321 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LORD JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LORD JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=all)

Price · $557.14

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $487.49 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.44% · 321 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 93.69% ±13.05 287 openings

30 days · 92.44% ±12.35 321 openings

since tracking started · 92.44% ±12.35 321 openings

7.0% 57.3% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=24h) | 28 | 49.78% ±42.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=7d) | 287 | 93.69% ±13.1 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker) | 321 | 92.44% ±12.3 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord-joker?window=all) | 321 | 92.44% ±12.3 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 362 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2,828 | 25.2% | 22 | 15.7 | 1.40× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1,435 | 12.8% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1,162 | 10.4% | 10 | 15.7 | 0.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1,056 | 9.4% | 10 | 15.7 | 0.64× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $757 | 6.8% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $641 | 5.7% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $595 | 5.3% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $559 | 5.0% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $400 | 3.6% | 11 | 15.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $370 | 3.3% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $342 | 1.5% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $280 | 1.2% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $189 | 1.7% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $140 | 1.2% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $138 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $131 | 1.2% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $103 | 0.5% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $102 | 0.9% | 21 | 15.7 | 1.33× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $82.28 | 0.7% | 18 | 15.7 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $76.80 | 0.7% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $66.45 | 0.6% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $59.75 | 0.5% | 18 | 15.7 | 1.14× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $51.78 | 0.5% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $42.24 | 0.4% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $37.47 | 0.3% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lord-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $568 $2,875 5.06x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [GruchaGbałagan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GruchaGba%C5%82agan) $568 $2,875 5.06x 2026-11-04 00:58 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $566 $2,844 5.02x 2026-11-08 22:40 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $566 $2,844 5.02x 2026-11-08 22:40 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $566 $2,844 5.02x 2026-11-08 22:40 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $566 $2,844 5.02x 2026-11-08 22:39 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $566 $2,844 5.02x 2026-11-08 22:39 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $567 $2,842 5.01x 2026-11-08 19:48 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $567 $2,842 5.01x 2026-11-08 19:47 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $567 $2,842 5.01x 2026-11-08 18:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lord-joker)

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $557 $641 1.15x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore) Hidden $557 $121 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $557 $400 0.72x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $557 $641 1.15x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $557 $559 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $557 $370 0.66x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-battle-scarred) Hidden $557 $59.75 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $557 $140 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) Hidden $557 $131 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $557 $82.28 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $561 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $566 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $561 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $564 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $566 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $567 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $564 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $567 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $568 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $569 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $568 | 87.50% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 43.5% classified 13.0% extraordinary 13.0% gold 6.5% restricted 4.3% legendary 4.3% pink 4.3% Immortal 2.2% sunny 4.3% Ancient 4.3% best hit $2,875 (5.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt