--- title: "LORD case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "LORD ($200.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 90.04% over 2,944 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LORD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LORD A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=all) Price · $200.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.01 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.04% · 2,944 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.79% ±8.75 366 openings 7 days · 90.60% ±3.40 2,546 openings 30 days · 90.04% ±3.16 2,944 openings since tracking started · 90.04% ±3.16 2,944 openings 82.5% 91.8% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=24h) | 366 | 91.79% ±8.75 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=7d) | 2,546 | 90.60% ±3.40 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord) | 2,944 | 90.04% ±3.16 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lord?window=all) | 2,944 | 90.04% ±3.16 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,964 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,804 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,435 | 0.7% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.25× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $1,138 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $1,073 | 0.7% | 8 | 3.6 | 2.25× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $759 | 0.8% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.50× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $662 | 5.5% | 32 | 43.0 | 0.74× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $580 | 5.5% | 49 | 48.9 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $566 | 5.5% | 44 | 50.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $397 | 9.0% | 136 | 118.0 | 1.15× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $365 | 9.0% | 131 | 128.3 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $342 | 4.1% | 0 | 61.7 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 15.4% | $280 | 24.7% | 0 | 457.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $189 | 4.4% | 95 | 119.7 | 0.79× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $140 | 3.6% | 140 | 134.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $135 | 1.5% | 0 | 58.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $131 | 3.5% | 132 | 138.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $103 | 3.0% | 140 | 152.6 | 0.92× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $99.48 | 1.7% | 0 | 88.9 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $83.95 | 2.7% | 190 | 165.1 | 1.15× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $81.55 | 2.6% | 145 | 167.2 | 0.87× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $66.66 | 2.3% | 184 | 181.1 | 1.02× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $58.64 | 2.2% | 201 | 190.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $51.67 | 2.0% | 182 | 200.7 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $43.39 | 1.8% | 188 | 215.2 | 0.87× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $37.47 | 1.6% | 233 | 227.9 | 1.02× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lord`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Auguś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Augu%C5%9B) $200 $2,842 14.21x 2026-11-06 23:26 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [TolukiTo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TolukiTo) $200 $1,483 7.42x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $1,481 7.41x 2026-11-06 02:41 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $1,469 7.34x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [Suzii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Suzii) $200 $1,421 7.10x 2026-11-05 20:05 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $200 $1,421 7.10x 2026-11-05 01:52 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $1,421 7.10x 2026-11-04 17:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [BOMBÁSZFORMÁSZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BOMB%C3%81SZFORM%C3%81SZ) $200 $1,214 6.07x 2026-11-03 22:54 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [FreJzi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/FreJzi) $200 $1,187 5.94x 2026-11-07 12:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $1,177 5.89x 2026-11-10 08:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lord) [AK-47 | Case Hardened weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $287 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $759 3.79x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $397 1.99x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $397 1.99x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $365 1.82x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-well-worn) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $51.67 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $287 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $37.47 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $287 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $200 $81.55 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 25 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $200 | 87.55% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $200 | 87.34% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $200 | 87.76% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $200 | 87.48% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 25 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $200 | 87.61% | 25 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $200 | 87.48% | 25 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $200 | 87.53% | 25 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $200 | 87.42% | 25 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $200 | 87.66% | 25 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $200 | 87.32% | 25 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $200 | 87.61% | 25 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $200 | 87.32% | 25 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $200 | 87.61% | 25 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $200 | 87.59% | 25 | | 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $200 | 87.52% | 25 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $200 | 87.32% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.5% classified 19.1% extraordinary 14.2% gold 3.2% restricted 1.7% legendary 4.3% pink 4.0% Immortal 2.0% sunny 6.8% Ancient 7.3% best hit $2,842 (14.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt