---
title: "LORE OF ARABESQUE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LORE OF ARABESQUE JOKER ($467.14) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 85.59% over 894 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LORE OF ARABESQUE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LORE OF ARABESQUE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=all)

Price · $467.14

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $408.75 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.59% · 894 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66.91% ±21.68 110 openings

7 days · 85.86% ±8.09 794 openings

30 days · 85.59% ±7.62 894 openings

since tracking started · 85.59% ±7.62 894 openings

44.5% 69.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=24h) | 110 | 66.91% ±21.7 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=7d) | 794 | 85.86% ±8.09 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker) | 894 | 85.59% ±7.62 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque-joker?window=all) | 894 | 85.59% ±7.62 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,006 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $2,256 | 10.0% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $1,944 | 8.6% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $1,913 | 8.5% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $1,545 | 6.9% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $1,346 | 6.0% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,117 | 8.3% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1,017 | 11.3% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $738 | 8.2% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $612 | 4.5% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $531 | 3.9% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $390 | 8.7% | 83 | 91.5 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $265 | 5.9% | 96 | 91.5 | 1.05× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $252 | 2.8% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $204 | 2.3% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $138 | 3.1% | 115 | 91.5 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $24.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $20.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $8.35 | 0.2% | 88 | 91.5 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $7.39 | 0.2% | 102 | 91.5 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $6.00 | 0.1% | 89 | 91.5 | 0.97× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lore-of-arabesque-joker`, 12 Nov, 14:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 19:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 19:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 19:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 19:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [roswen](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roswen) $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 19:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [jonny](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jonny) $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 16:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [jonny](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jonny) $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 16:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [jonny](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jonny) $477 $1,855 3.89x 2026-11-03 16:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [ytb: Lukasscz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ytb%3A%20Lukasscz) $475 $1,852 3.90x 2026-11-02 23:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [ytb: Lukasscz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ytb%3A%20Lukasscz) $475 $1,852 3.90x 2026-11-02 23:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lore-of-arabesque-joker)

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [????????????skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3Fskins.army) $465 $1,791 3.85x 2026-11-12 17:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [????????????skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3Fskins.army) $467 $7.39 0.02x 2026-11-12 17:23 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore) Hidden $467 $877 1.88x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $467 $138 0.29x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore) Hidden $467 $228 0.49x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $467 $753 1.61x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight) Hidden $467 $22.59 0.05x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore) Hidden $467 $228 0.49x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $467 $265 0.57x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $467 $753 1.61x 2026-11-12 13:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 14:56 UTC | $467 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $472 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $471 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $470 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $474 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $476 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $475 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $473 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $475 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $477 | 87.50% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 31.8% Immortal 12.1% gold 4.5% legendary 3.0% sunny 3.0% classified 9.1% pink 9.1% blue 18.2% violet 9.1% best hit $1,855 (3.89x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt