---
title: "LORE OF ARABESQUE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LORE OF ARABESQUE ($38.75) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 87.59% over 16.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque
rendered: 2026-11-12T04:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LORE OF ARABESQUE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LORE OF ARABESQUE

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=all)

Price · $38.75

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $33.91 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.59% · 16.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.31% ±12.47 2,339 openings

7 days · 89.43% ±5.34 13K openings

30 days · 87.59% ±4.72 16.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.59% ±4.72 16.5K openings

82.0% 96.2% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=24h) | 2,339 | 97.31% ±12.5 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=7d) | 13K | 89.43% ±5.34 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque) | 16.5K | 87.59% ±4.72 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lore-of-arabesque?window=all) | 16.5K | 87.59% ±4.72 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,277 | 1.3% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,944 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,913 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,576 | 2.3% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,359 | 2.8% | 0 | 11.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,123 | 2.0% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,023 | 4.5% | 0 | 24.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $752 | 6.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $596 | 4.0% | 0 | 38.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $531 | 4.4% | 0 | 46.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $397 | 10.4% | 152 | 147.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $272 | 10.4% | 218 | 215.2 | 1.01× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $247 | 4.7% | 0 | 107.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $207 | 5.7% | 0 | 155.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $135 | 10.5% | 446 | 435.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $27.94 | 5.8% | 0 | 1161.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $20.59 | 5.3% | 0 | 1454.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 23.1% | $9.01 | 6.1% | 3,805 | 3820.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 25.4% | $7.42 | 5.6% | 4,299 | 4210.6 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 28.1% | $5.51 | 4.6% | 4,718 | 4645.9 | 1.02× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lore-of-arabesque`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,737 44.83x 2026-11-09 19:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $38.75 $1,737 44.83x 2026-11-09 14:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,731 44.66x 2026-11-03 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $38.75 $1,731 44.66x 2026-11-03 12:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,731 44.66x 2026-11-03 09:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,731 44.66x 2026-11-03 09:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,710 44.14x 2026-11-09 10:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,710 44.14x 2026-11-09 07:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) [alib.73](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/alib.73) $38.75 $1,710 44.14x 2026-11-09 04:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque) Hidden $38.75 $1,699 43.84x 2026-11-08 22:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lore-of-arabesque)

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) Hidden $38.75 $9.01 0.23x 2026-11-12 04:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $38.75 $7.42 0.19x 2026-11-12 04:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.75 $5.51 0.14x 2026-11-12 04:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $38.75 $23.85 0.62x 2026-11-12 04:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.75 $5.51 0.14x 2026-11-12 04:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight) Hidden $38.75 $23.85 0.62x 2026-11-12 04:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-crane-flight) Hidden $38.75 $23.85 0.62x 2026-11-12 04:18 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) [Sandu Ciorba LTZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sandu%20Ciorba%20LTZ) $38.75 $9.01 0.23x 2026-11-12 04:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $38.75 $7.42 0.19x 2026-11-12 04:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.75 $5.51 0.14x 2026-11-12 04:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $38.75 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $38.75 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $38.75 | 87.42% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $38.75 | 87.37% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $38.75 | 88.09% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $38.75 | 87.20% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $38.75 | 88.36% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $38.75 | 88.28% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $38.75 | 88.36% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $38.75 | 88.39% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $38.75 | 88.18% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $38.75 | 87.74% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $38.75 | 87.72% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $38.75 | 87.72% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $38.75 | 87.37% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $38.75 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $38.75 | 86.73% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $38.75 | 86.96% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $38.75 | 87.52% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $38.75 | 86.96% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.8% Immortal 2.7% gold 0.3% legendary 0.2% sunny 0.3% classified 1.3% pink 15.8% blue 48.5% violet 28.1% best hit $1,737 (44.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt