--- title: "LOTUS FLOWER JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LOTUS FLOWER JOKER ($2,182.30) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 90.94% over 1,629 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T03:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LOTUS FLOWER JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LOTUS FLOWER JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=all) Price · $2,182.30 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1,909.51 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.94% · 1,629 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.05% ±11.40 692 openings 7 days · 90.52% ±7.78 1,491 openings 30 days · 90.94% ±7.45 1,629 openings since tracking started · 90.94% ±7.45 1,629 openings 82.0% 94.5% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=24h) | 692 | 95.05% ±11.4 | +1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=7d) | 1,491 | 90.52% ±7.78 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker) | 1,629 | 90.94% ±7.45 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower-joker?window=all) | 1,629 | 90.94% ±7.45 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,782 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $18.5K | 12.1% | 0 | 22.3 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $13.4K | 8.8% | 0 | 22.3 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $9,852 | 6.4% | 0 | 22.3 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 16 | $8,516 | 27.9% | 138 | 111.4 | 1.24× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $6,954 | 4.6% | 0 | 22.3 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $5,630 | 3.7% | 0 | 22.3 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $3,324 | 10.9% | 112 | 111.4 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 16 | $2,233 | 7.3% | 105 | 111.4 | 0.94× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $2,165 | 2.4% | 0 | 37.1 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1,503 | 2.5% | 0 | 55.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1,122 | 1.2% | 0 | 37.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1,097 | 3.6% | 113 | 111.4 | 1.01× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $969 | 1.1% | 0 | 37.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $806 | 2.6% | 101 | 111.4 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $772 | 2.5% | 98 | 111.4 | 0.88× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $595 | 1.0% | 0 | 55.7 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $135 | 0.4% | 109 | 111.4 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $100 | 0.3% | 139 | 111.4 | 1.25× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $83.84 | 0.3% | 102 | 111.4 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $70.53 | 0.2% | 105 | 111.4 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $35.22 | 0.1% | 102 | 111.4 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $23.06 | 0.1% | 114 | 111.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $17.98 | 0.1% | 106 | 111.4 | 0.95× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lotus-flower-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $2,214 $11.3K 5.10x 2026-11-08 13:46 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,214 $11.3K 5.10x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $2,227 $11.3K 5.06x 2026-11-09 15:16 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [day0s-](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/day0s-) $2,227 $11.3K 5.06x 2026-11-09 12:10 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $2,227 $11.3K 5.06x 2026-11-09 11:04 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,227 $11.3K 5.06x 2026-11-09 10:56 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,227 $11.3K 5.06x 2026-11-09 10:56 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,222 $11.2K 5.06x 2026-11-06 00:26 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [IsAmU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/IsAmU) $2,222 $11.2K 5.06x 2026-11-05 18:02 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $2,207 $11.2K 5.08x 2026-11-08 22:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lotus-flower-joker) [Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,182 $100 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent) Hidden $2,182 $1,419 0.65x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) Hidden $2,182 $83.84 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,182 $70.53 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $2,182 $17.98 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $2,182 $17.98 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,182 $100 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,182 $8,516 3.90x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $2,182 $772 0.35x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2,182 $1,097 0.50x 2026-11-12 00:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $2,182 | 87.50% | 23 | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,193 | 87.50% | 23 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,196 | 87.50% | 23 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,193 | 87.50% | 23 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2,199 | 87.50% | 23 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2,216 | 87.50% | 23 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,227 | 87.50% | 23 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2,214 | 87.50% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,207 | 87.50% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2,216 | 87.50% | 23 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2,214 | 87.50% | 23 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2,207 | 87.50% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2,222 | 87.50% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2,223 | 87.50% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,232 | 87.50% | 23 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,210 | 87.50% | 23 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,232 | 87.50% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 3.3% covert 36.3% classified 6.3% sunny 4.2% restricted 12.5% rare 6.3% blue 18.8% violet 12.5% best hit $11.3K (5.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt