---
title: "LOTUS FLOWER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LOTUS FLOWER ($195.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 80.26% over 4,484 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [LOTUS FLOWER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · LOTUS FLOWER

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=all)

Price · $195.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $170.62 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.26% · 4,484 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.40% ±21.97 837 openings

7 days · 78.99% ±11.40 3,452 openings

30 days · 80.26% ±10.10 4,484 openings

since tracking started · 80.26% ±10.10 4,484 openings

50.0% 72.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=24h) | 837 | 72.40% ±22.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=7d) | 3,452 | 78.99% ±11.4 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower) | 4,484 | 80.26% ±10.1 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/lotus-flower?window=all) | 4,484 | 80.26% ±10.1 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,506 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $18.5K | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.5K | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $9,628 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 588 | $8,568 | 8.5% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $6,956 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $5,630 | 3.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $3,324 | 8.6% | 16 | 19.8 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 154 | $2,233 | 8.5% | 26 | 29.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $2,188 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 357 | $1,503 | 2.5% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $1,125 | 3.2% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,123 | 6.6% | 43 | 45.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $969 | 3.7% | 0 | 29.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $823 | 8.5% | 56 | 79.3 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $797 | 4.7% | 45 | 45.1 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $599 | 6.1% | 0 | 78.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $136 | 6.0% | 406 | 338.0 | 1.20× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $88.59 | 4.9% | 476 | 424.5 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $83.84 | 4.8% | 491 | 436.2 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 10.5% | $71.10 | 4.4% | 547 | 473.6 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 14.9% | $35.22 | 3.1% | 670 | 673.2 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $23.06 | 2.5% | 766 | 831.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 21.0% | $17.98 | 2.2% | 846 | 945.8 | 0.89× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/lotus-flower`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Dr.Dre](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dr.Dre) $195 $8,769 44.97x 2026-11-03 20:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Suzii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Suzii) $195 $8,637 44.29x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Suzii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Suzii) $195 $8,637 44.29x 2026-11-05 19:53 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Puzonik](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Puzonik) $195 $8,566 43.93x 2026-11-04 19:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $195 $8,529 43.74x 2026-11-06 12:26 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $195 $8,491 43.55x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [LYSY\_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY) $195 $8,464 43.41x 2026-11-07 19:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Suzii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Suzii) $195 $8,464 43.41x 2026-11-07 19:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $195 $8,464 43.41x 2026-11-06 19:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $195 $8,265 42.39x 2026-11-07 22:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=lotus-flower)

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [MAZ!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MAZ!) $195 $35.22 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [Synku](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Synku) $195 $23.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [Dżejson Stejtam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/D%C5%BCejson%20Stejtam) $195 $71.10 0.36x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $195 $23.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $195 $23.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $195 $88.59 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $195 $83.84 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $195 $23.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept) Hidden $195 $725 3.72x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) Hidden $195 $83.84 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $195 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $195 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $195 | 87.36% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $195 | 88.02% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $195 | 86.97% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $195 | 87.09% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $195 | 87.10% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $195 | 87.32% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $195 | 87.10% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $195 | 87.28% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $195 | 86.61% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $195 | 87.28% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $195 | 87.59% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $195 | 87.62% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $195 | 87.00% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $195 | 87.62% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $195 | 87.00% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $195 | 87.00% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $195 | 87.15% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $195 | 87.48% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $195 | 87.03% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% covert 14.5% classified 0.4% sunny 1.1% restricted 16.7% rare 1.0% blue 26.6% violet 39.4% best hit $8,769 (44.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt