---
title: "M4A4 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 JOKER ($286.90) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 124 items with odds, observed 82.40% over 346 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [M4A4 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · M4A4 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=all)

Price · $286.90

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $251.04 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.40% · 346 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62 openings · below min

7 days · 84.50% ±35.99 333 openings

30 days · 82.40% ±35.30 346 openings

since tracking started · 82.40% ±35.30 346 openings

46.5% 134.8% 223.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=24h) | 62 | 139.28% ±83.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=7d) | 333 | 84.50% ±36.0 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker) | 346 | 82.40% ±35.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4-joker?window=all) | 346 | 82.40% ±35.3 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $6,120 | 59.5% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1,435 | 13.9% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $799 | 7.8% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $324 | 1.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $307 | 1.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $246 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $236 | 2.3% | 15 | 9.4 | 1.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $203 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $183 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $172 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $156 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $137 | 1.3% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $120 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $106 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $105 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $102 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $99.99 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $98.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $90.76 | 0.9% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $87.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $81.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $68.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $68.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $64.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $63.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $62.44 | 0.6% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $55.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $47.11 | 0.5% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $46.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $45.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $39.47 | 0.4% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $39.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $39.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $39.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $38.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $38.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $35.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $35.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $34.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $33.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $33.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $32.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $27.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $26.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $24.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $23.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $22.14 | 0.2% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $18.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $16.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $16.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $16.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $14.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $14.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $13.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $12.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $11.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $11.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $10.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $9.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $8.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $7.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $7.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $6.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $6.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $6.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $5.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $5.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $4.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $4.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $4.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $4.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $3.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $3.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $3.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $3.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $3.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $2.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $1.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $1.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $1.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $1.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $1.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $0.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/m4a4-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $287 $6,120 21.30x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $287 $6,120 21.33x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $287 $6,120 21.33x 2026-11-10 21:19 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $289 $6,120 21.16x 2026-11-09 22:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $286 $6,120 21.42x 2026-11-04 20:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $286 $6,120 21.42x 2026-11-04 20:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [BMW enjoyer \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BMW%20enjoyer%20_lt%3B3) $287 $6,120 21.34x 2026-11-03 19:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $288 $6,120 21.28x 2026-11-06 18:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $287 $6,120 21.34x 2026-11-06 09:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [co tam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/co%20tam) $286 $6,047 21.11x 2026-11-03 14:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=m4a4-joker)

[M4A4 | Mainframe weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe) Hidden $287 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov) Hidden $287 $129 0.45x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord) Hidden $287 $1.30 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $287 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $287 $1,402 4.88x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium) Hidden $287 $2.51 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup) Hidden $287 $11.12 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $287 $207 0.72x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo) Hidden $287 $0.08 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $287 $251 0.87x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $289 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $291 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $290 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $288 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $286 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $287 | 87.50% | 124 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 2.4% classified 9.8% restricted 9.0% Ancient 3.9% covert 14.8% red 8.9% epic 0.5% rare 1.0% #eb4b4b 1.2% industrial 2.4% blue 6.7% mil spec 5.7% Legendary 1.1% pink 6.1% violet 7.7% Mythical 1.7% uncommon 1.1% #8847ff 2.9% Classified 0.5% #d32ee6 0.6% milspec 2.0% Rare 2.3% light blue 1.0% Uncommon 2.9% blueLight 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% #87c7ff 1.0% #5e98d9 1.0% best hit $6,120 (21.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt