---
title: "M4A4 case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($2.75) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.84% from 124 items with odds, observed 81.41% over 22.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · M4A4

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $2.75

Advertised RTP · 87.84% · EV $2.42 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.41% · 22.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 108.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.34% ±37.44 2,979 openings

7 days · 81.82% ±14.39 20.3K openings

30 days · 81.41% ±13.55 22.9K openings

since tracking started · 81.41% ±13.55 22.9K openings

41.5% 79.5% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=24h) | 2,979 | 79.34% ±37.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=7d) | 20.3K | 81.82% ±14.4 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4) | 22.9K | 81.41% ±13.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/m4a4?window=all) | 22.9K | 81.41% ±13.5 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $6,120 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,435 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $799 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $324 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $307 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $246 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $236 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $183 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $172 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $137 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $106 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $105 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $102 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $99.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $98.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $90.76 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $87.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $81.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $68.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $68.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $64.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $63.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $62.44 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $55.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $47.11 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $46.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $45.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $39.47 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $39.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $39.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $39.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $38.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $38.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $35.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $35.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $34.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $33.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $33.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $32.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $27.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $26.87 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $24.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $23.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $22.14 | 0.8% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $18.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $16.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $16.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $16.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $14.99 | 0.8% | 0 | 27.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $14.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $13.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $11.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $11.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 20.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $10.07 | 4.5% | 0 | 245.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $9.75 | 5.6% | 0 | 319.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $8.51 | 1.9% | 0 | 124.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $7.63 | 5.9% | 0 | 427.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $7.03 | 3.6% | 0 | 284.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $6.73 | 3.2% | 0 | 262.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $6.64 | 8.3% | 0 | 688.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 578 | $6.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 39.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $5.83 | 2.8% | 0 | 262.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $5.02 | 0.8% | 0 | 84.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $4.80 | 4.5% | 0 | 519.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.57 | 4.7% | 0 | 573.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $4.51 | 4.8% | 0 | 589.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $4.03 | 4.3% | 0 | 584.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $3.98 | 4.3% | 0 | 597.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $3.78 | 0.6% | 0 | 85.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $3.75 | 7.1% | 0 | 1051.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.66 | 7.3% | 0 | 1105.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $3.60 | 4.8% | 0 | 731.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $3.49 | 1.9% | 0 | 303.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $2.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 549 | $1.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $1.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 330 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 69.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 275 | $1.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 83.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 236 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $1.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 549 | $1.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 1,613 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 236 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $0.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 236 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 183 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 124.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 208.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 124.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 138.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $0.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 152.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $0.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 166.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $0.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 401.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 275 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 83.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 330 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 69.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 206 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 111.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 304.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 360.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 346.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 443.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 443.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 581.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 581.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 554.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 554.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 318.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 318.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 277.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 429.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 360.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 983.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 817.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 817.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 512.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 512.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 983.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 983.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/m4a4`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $2.75 $265 96.41x 2026-11-08 22:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $2.75 $259 94.00x 2026-11-06 20:13 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition) Hidden $2.75 $172 62.66x 2026-11-06 19:03 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition) Hidden $2.75 $172 62.66x 2026-11-05 19:30 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition) [Maltior](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Maltior) $2.75 $169 61.33x 2026-11-07 21:36 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) Hidden $2.75 $141 51.15x 2026-11-06 20:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [damianxc21](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damianxc21) $2.75 $141 51.15x 2026-11-06 14:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=m4a4)

[M4A4 | Spider Lily weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily) Hidden $2.75 $7.68 2.79x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily) Hidden $2.75 $7.68 2.79x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe) [RuJiRu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RuJiRu) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin) Hidden $2.75 $4.10 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo) Hidden $2.75 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium) [GapKac](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GapKac) $2.75 $0.81 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) Hidden $2.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin) Hidden $2.75 $4.10 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo) Hidden $2.75 $4.33 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work) [GapKac](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GapKac) $2.75 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.75 | 87.84% | 124 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.75 | 87.50% | 124 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.75 | 87.84% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.75 | 87.32% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.75 | 87.17% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.75 | 87.56% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.75 | 87.23% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2.75 | 87.56% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.75 | 87.23% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.75 | 87.67% | 124 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.75 | 87.22% | 124 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.75 | 87.61% | 124 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.75 | 87.22% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.75 | 86.95% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.75 | 87.51% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2.75 | 86.99% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2.75 | 87.72% | 124 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.75 | 86.99% | 124 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.75 | 87.72% | 124 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.75 | 87.52% | 124 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $2.75 | 87.67% | 124 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.75 | 87.71% | 124 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 22.3% Ancient 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.1% epic 0.0% rare 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% industrial 0.0% blue 9.0% mil spec 3.0% Legendary 2.5% pink 5.0% violet 7.6% Mythical 3.3% uncommon 0.1% #8847ff 1.9% Classified 0.1% #d32ee6 1.1% milspec 5.1% Rare 4.1% light blue 3.7% Uncommon 13.7% blueLight 4.2% Mil Spec Grade 2.4% #87c7ff 2.8% #5e98d9 7.9% best hit $265 (96.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.84 on average: an expected loss of $12.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt