---
title: "MAGMA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MAGMA JOKER ($49.87) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 53 items with odds, observed 87.68% over 4,872 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MAGMA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MAGMA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=all)

Price · $49.87

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $43.63 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.68% · 4,872 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.27% ±38.05 182 openings

7 days · 87.98% ±7.66 4,493 openings

30 days · 87.68% ±7.36 4,872 openings

since tracking started · 87.68% ±7.36 4,872 openings

54.5% 93.3% 132.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=24h) | 182 | 93.27% ±38.0 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=7d) | 4,493 | 87.98% ±7.66 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker) | 4,872 | 87.68% ±7.36 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma-joker?window=all) | 4,872 | 87.68% ±7.36 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,883 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 22 | $627 | 65.3% | 223 | 221.9 | 1.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $134 | 13.9% | 235 | 221.9 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $83.95 | 4.4% | 0 | 110.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $65.16 | 6.8% | 210 | 221.9 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $55.72 | 2.9% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $19.86 | 2.1% | 223 | 221.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $15.65 | 1.6% | 244 | 221.9 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $12.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $6.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $6.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $5.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $4.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $4.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $4.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $3.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $3.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $2.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $2.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $2.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $1.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 110.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $1.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.89 | 0.1% | 190 | 222.0 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 197 | 222.0 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 74.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 111.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 231 | 222.0 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/magma-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [BOT Bim](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BOT%20Bim) $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 22:07 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [C1HŁΛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/C1H%C5%81%CE%9B) $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [kocia CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kocia%20CS2.ME) $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 20:35 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Peanut](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Peanut) $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 20:19 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 20:11 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.49 $640 12.67x 2026-11-04 19:15 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.07 $628 12.55x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.07 $628 12.55x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=magma-joker)

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down) Hidden $49.87 $0.80 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $49.87 $0.78 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror) [kwas.exeskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kwas.exeskins.army) $49.87 $0.83 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) [????Tysiak™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FTysiak%E2%84%A2) $49.87 $19.86 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded) [Show DLL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Show%20DLL) $49.87 $0.68 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic) [Show DLL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Show%20DLL) $49.87 $6.96 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded) Hidden $49.87 $0.68 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-factory-new) Hidden $49.87 $0.89 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $49.87 $0.78 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell) [Romper](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Romper) $49.87 $1.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $49.87 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $48.83 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $49.87 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $48.83 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $48.91 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $49.11 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $49.23 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $49.33 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $49.23 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $49.20 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $49.17 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $49.20 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $48.95 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $49.17 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $48.53 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $50.07 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $49.82 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $50.07 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $50.49 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $50.07 | 87.51% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $50.06 | 87.50% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.9% legendary 4.5% sunny 4.5% covert 9.1% pink 12.5% classified 4.5% Classified 1.1% Mythical 6.1% #8847ff 12.5% restricted 14.0% Restricted 1.1% violet 2.7% Rare 5.5% mil spec 0.9% #4b69ff 4.5% blue 14.5% Mil Spec Grade 0.9% best hit $640 (12.67x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt