---
title: "MAGMA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MAGMA ($1.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 53 items with odds, observed 84.46% over 77.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MAGMA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MAGMA

A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.88 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.46% · 77.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.45% ±4.62 10K openings

7 days · 84.50% ±1.70 74.5K openings

30 days · 84.46% ±1.66 77.7K openings

since tracking started · 84.46% ±1.66 77.7K openings

79.0% 84.3% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.71% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.80% – 86.12%, 77,732 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=24h) | 10K | 84.45% ±4.62 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=7d) | 74.5K | 84.50% ±1.70 | −3.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma) | 77.7K | 84.46% ±1.66 | −3.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/magma?window=all) | 77.7K | 84.46% ±1.66 | −3.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $627 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $134 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $83.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $65.16 | 0.7% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $55.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $19.86 | 0.5% | 13 | 15.6 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.65 | 0.4% | 10 | 15.6 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $12.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $6.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $4.02 | 1.7% | 0 | 288.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $3.81 | 2.3% | 0 | 412.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $3.81 | 2.3% | 0 | 412.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $3.68 | 2.4% | 0 | 441.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $3.24 | 3.3% | 0 | 692.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $2.88 | 3.7% | 0 | 875.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $2.66 | 2.6% | 0 | 657.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $2.51 | 2.7% | 0 | 739.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 338 | $2.19 | 0.7% | 0 | 230.2 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.71 | 3.3% | 0 | 1304.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 230 | $1.53 | 0.8% | 0 | 337.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.51 | 3.7% | 0 | 1673.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $1.07 | 1.5% | 0 | 960.3 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $1.03 | 2.2% | 0 | 1483.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $1.01 | 1.4% | 0 | 960.3 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $0.99 | 2.6% | 0 | 1793.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.97 | 2.6% | 0 | 1845.2 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.96 | 2.6% | 0 | 1877.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $0.90 | 1.0% | 0 | 741.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.89 | 7.3% | 5,511 | 5615.0 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $0.89 | 2.5% | 0 | 1913.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.83 | 2.2% | 0 | 1810.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.81 | 6.9% | 5,633 | 5830.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.80 | 1.8% | 0 | 1507.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.80 | 1.8% | 0 | 1507.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.80 | 2.2% | 0 | 1905.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.73 | 1.8% | 0 | 1713.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.72 | 2.3% | 0 | 2208.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.69 | 2.1% | 0 | 2079.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.67 | 2.1% | 0 | 2167.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.67 | 1.1% | 0 | 1119.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.57 | 1.6% | 0 | 1947.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 0 | 2048.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 0 | 2047.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.55 | 1.2% | 0 | 1475.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.52 | 1.2% | 0 | 1596.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.50 | 3.4% | 0 | 4665.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.49 | 1.2% | 0 | 1735.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.46 | 3.3% | 0 | 4819.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 13.1% | $0.20 | 3.0% | 11,122 | 10206.0 | 1.09× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/magma`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [TURUNC](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TURUNC) $1.00 $124 124.1x 2026-11-05 16:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [getlarpedskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/getlarpedskins.army) $1.00 $68.99 68.99x 2026-11-04 18:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $68.41 68.41x 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [Tazz-Mania](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tazz-Mania) $1.00 $67.69 67.69x 2026-11-10 07:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $65.16 65.16x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [Kotel147 skins.army CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kotel147%20skins.army%20CS2.ME) $1.00 $63.74 63.74x 2026-11-09 16:59 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [QuarnelXD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/QuarnelXD) $1.00 $63.51 63.51x 2026-11-06 17:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [erT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/erT) $1.00 $63.33 63.33x 2026-11-09 19:05 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) Hidden $1.00 $62.54 62.54x 2026-11-05 23:00 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) Hidden $1.00 $61.23 61.23x 2026-11-08 20:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=magma)

[P90 | Chopper weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper) Hidden $1.00 $1.60 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) [OnlyFansTouchMyNipple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/OnlyFansTouchMyNipple) $1.00 $0.78 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth) Hidden $1.00 $0.99 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell) Hidden $1.00 $0.81 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $0.20 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) [OnlyFansTouchMyNipple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/OnlyFansTouchMyNipple) $1.00 $0.20 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $1.00 $0.78 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded) Hidden $1.00 $0.58 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded) Hidden $1.00 $0.58 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth) [OnlyFansTouchMyNipple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/OnlyFansTouchMyNipple) $1.00 $0.99 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 88.11% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 87.54% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.00 | 87.79% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.00 | 87.54% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 87.91% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1.00 | 87.69% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.00 | 87.60% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 87.94% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.90% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.58% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 86.64% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.98% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1.00 | 88.22% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.92% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.00 | 87.62% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.14% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.2% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 1.7% classified 0.0% Classified 0.0% Mythical 7.4% #8847ff 14.4% restricted 18.5% Restricted 0.3% violet 4.2% Rare 9.8% mil spec 1.0% blue 29.9% #4b69ff 8.7% Mil Spec Grade 1.9% best hit $124 (124.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt