--- title: "MARROW JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MARROW JOKER ($294.52) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 31 items with odds, observed 88.68% over 1,043 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MARROW JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MARROW JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=all) Price · $294.52 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $257.71 from 31 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.68% · 1,043 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 84.06% ±10.54 819 openings 30 days · 88.68% ±9.36 1,043 openings since tracking started · 88.68% ±9.36 1,043 openings 73.0% 85.8% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=7d) | 819 | 84.06% ±10.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker) | 1,043 | 88.68% ±9.36 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow-joker?window=all) | 1,043 | 88.68% ±9.36 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,071 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 18 | $1,632 | 35.2% | 63 | 59.5 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1,318 | 28.4% | 54 | 59.5 | 0.91× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 18 | $649 | 14.0% | 63 | 59.5 | 1.06× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 18 | $307 | 6.6% | 62 | 59.5 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $210 | 1.5% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $204 | 1.5% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $162 | 1.2% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $148 | 1.1% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $141 | 3.0% | 66 | 59.5 | 1.11× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $141 | 1.0% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $109 | 0.8% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $69.49 | 0.7% | 0 | 29.7 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $64.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 29.8 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $54.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 29.8 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $47.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $47.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 29.8 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $43.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $42.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $39.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $37.78 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $35.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $24.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $16.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $14.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $14.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.63 | 0.3% | 58 | 59.5 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 18 | $8.02 | 0.2% | 58 | 59.5 | 0.97× | | [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $7.27 | 0.2% | 61 | 59.5 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $7.11 | 0.2% | 55 | 59.5 | 0.92× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $7.05 | 0.2% | 52 | 59.5 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $6.89 | 0.1% | 55 | 59.5 | 0.92× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/marrow-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $301 $1,686 5.61x 2026-11-02 21:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $301 $1,686 5.61x 2026-11-02 21:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $301 $1,686 5.61x 2026-11-02 21:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $299 $1,686 5.64x 2026-11-03 12:53 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $299 $1,686 5.64x 2026-11-03 12:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $299 $1,686 5.64x 2026-11-03 12:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $299 $1,686 5.64x 2026-11-03 10:54 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $298 $1,662 5.57x 2026-11-05 23:32 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $298 $1,662 5.57x 2026-11-05 21:03 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $298 $1,662 5.57x 2026-11-04 16:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=marrow-joker) [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $295 $1,632 5.54x 2026-11-10 06:32 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $295 $7.05 0.02x 2026-11-10 06:32 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $295 $649 2.20x 2026-11-10 06:32 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $295 $649 2.20x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) Hidden $295 $8.02 0.03x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $295 $7.11 0.02x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $295 $141 0.48x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider) Hidden $295 $50.99 0.17x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $295 $6.89 0.02x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen) Hidden $295 $66.77 0.23x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 31 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 31 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $291 | 87.50% | 31 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $292 | 87.50% | 31 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $292 | 87.50% | 31 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $293 | 87.50% | 31 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 31 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $298 | 87.50% | 31 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 31 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $298 | 87.50% | 31 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $301 | 87.50% | 31 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 5.6% covert 31.5% gold 11.1% red 3.7% epic 1.9% sunny 1.9% rare 1.9% Ancient 3.7% classified 5.6% violet 5.6% pink 11.1% blue 16.7% best hit $1,686 (5.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt