---
title: "MARROW case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MARROW ($12.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.07% from 31 items with odds, observed 87.20% over 47.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MARROW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MARROW

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.07% · EV $10.57 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.20% · 47.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 87.38% ±1.17 38.9K openings

30 days · 87.20% ±1.07 47.3K openings

since tracking started · 87.20% ±1.07 47.3K openings

85.5% 87.3% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=7d) | 38.9K | 87.38% ±1.17 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow) | 47.3K | 87.20% ±1.07 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/marrow?window=all) | 47.3K | 87.20% ±1.07 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,632 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,318 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $649 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $307 | 0.3% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $210 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $204 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $162 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $148 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $141 | 0.5% | 24 | 19.0 | 1.27× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $141 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $109 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $69.49 | 0.7% | 0 | 47.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $64.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 52.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $54.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 56.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 385 | $47.93 | 1.2% | 0 | 123.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $47.43 | 2.2% | 0 | 237.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $43.13 | 1.3% | 0 | 156.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $42.26 | 1.4% | 0 | 161.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 263 | $39.73 | 1.4% | 0 | 180.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 233 | $37.78 | 1.5% | 0 | 203.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $35.83 | 1.6% | 0 | 222.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $24.44 | 3.1% | 0 | 625.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $16.52 | 4.5% | 0 | 1379.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $14.93 | 5.0% | 0 | 1678.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $14.55 | 5.1% | 0 | 1773.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $13.63 | 17.8% | 6,231 | 6534.1 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 13.7% | $8.02 | 10.4% | 6,675 | 6515.1 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 14.3% | $7.27 | 9.8% | 6,822 | 6785.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 14.4% | $7.11 | 9.7% | 7,090 | 6851.8 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 14.4% | $7.05 | 9.6% | 6,954 | 6851.8 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 14.6% | $6.89 | 9.5% | 7,156 | 6922.9 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/marrow`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Bulgot CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bulgot%20CS2.ME) $12.00 $1,632 136.0x 2026-11-09 21:18 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $12.00 $1,632 136.0x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $1,309 109.1x 2026-11-07 12:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=marrow)

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $7.11 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $7.05 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) [HyeXX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HyeXX) $12.00 $7.05 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $13.63 1.14x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $7.05 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) [BrodnyZyd](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrodnyZyd) $12.00 $7.27 0.61x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) [fatalblush](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/fatalblush) $12.00 $7.05 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [Raul443\_\_443](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Raul443__443) $12.00 $16.30 1.36x 2026-11-10 11:31 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) [Raul443\_\_443](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Raul443__443) $12.00 $8.02 0.67x 2026-11-10 11:31 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $6.89 0.57x 2026-11-10 11:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $12.00 | 88.07% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $12.00 | 88.10% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.00 | 87.84% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $12.00 | 87.84% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $12.00 | 87.85% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $12.00 | 87.71% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $12.00 | 87.88% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $12.00 | 88.00% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $12.00 | 87.92% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $12.00 | 87.70% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.00 | 87.72% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $12.00 | 87.95% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 1.8% gold 0.1% red 0.4% epic 0.0% sunny 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.9% classified 11.5% violet 13.8% pink 28.2% blue 43.4% best hit $1,632 (136.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.07 on average: an expected loss of $11.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt