---
title: "MIL-SPEC JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MIL-SPEC JOKER ($5.62) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 34 items with odds, observed 76.91% over 119 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MIL-SPEC JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MIL-SPEC JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=all)

Price · $5.62

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $4.92 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.91% · 119 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 76.91% ±33.08 119 openings

30 days · 76.91% ±33.08 119 openings

since tracking started · 76.91% ±33.08 119 openings

-0.5% 107.3% 215.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=24h) | 3 | 7.18% ±207.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=7d) | 119 | 76.91% ±33.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker) | 119 | 76.91% ±33.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec-joker?window=all) | 119 | 76.91% ±33.1 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $46.80 | 41.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $20.66 | 18.3% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $17.54 | 15.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $10.99 | 9.7% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $5.37 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $4.57 | 2.0% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $3.29 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $2.49 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.85 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.10 | 1.0% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.78 | 0.7% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-monarch-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-monarch-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.24 | 0.2% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.11 | 0.1% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/mil-spec-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=mil-spec-joker)

[AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) [KRZAQ CS2.ME CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KRZAQ%20CS2.ME%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $5.48 $0.69 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Junk Yard weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard) [skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/skins.army) $5.48 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) [skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/skins.army) $5.48 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [CHaMpioN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CHaMpioN) $5.48 $3.29 0.60x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[Nova | Ranger weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger) [CHaMpioN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CHaMpioN) $5.48 $0.61 0.11x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [CHaMpioN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CHaMpioN) $5.48 $17.22 3.14x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC

[Nova | Ranger weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger) [KYZΞN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KYZ%CE%9EN) $5.62 $0.61 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:27 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [KYZΞN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KYZ%CE%9EN) $5.62 $0.12 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:27 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) [KYZΞN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KYZ%CE%9EN) $5.62 $0.81 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot) [Justin Credible](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Justin%20Credible) $5.48 $1.03 0.19x 2026-11-10 04:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $5.62 | 87.51% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.48 | 87.51% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.62 | 87.57% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.48 | 87.49% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.48 | 87.57% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.59 | 87.48% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.53 | 87.43% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $5.59 | 87.48% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.48 | 87.53% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 18.8% blue 52.9% Rare 13.0% #4b69ff 10.9% milspec 2.2% Mil Spec 2.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt