---
title: "MIL-SPEC case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MIL-SPEC ($0.35) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 85.07% over 56.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MIL-SPEC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MIL-SPEC

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=all)

Price · $0.35

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.31 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.07% · 56.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.57% ±2.83 6,985 openings

7 days · 84.79% ±1.08 47.7K openings

30 days · 85.07% ±0.99 56.7K openings

since tracking started · 85.07% ±0.99 56.7K openings

83.0% 86.5% 90.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.08% – 86.06%, 56,721 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=24h) | 6,985 | 86.57% ±2.83 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=7d) | 47.7K | 84.79% ±1.08 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec) | 56.7K | 85.07% ±0.99 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/mil-spec?window=all) | 56.7K | 85.07% ±0.99 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $46.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $20.66 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $17.54 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $10.99 | 0.4% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3.29 | 0.5% | 21 | 28.4 | 0.74× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $2.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $1.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 39.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $1.19 | 2.1% | 0 | 301.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $1.10 | 7.8% | 1,157 | 1226.4 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $0.92 | 2.7% | 0 | 504.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $0.81 | 3.0% | 0 | 651.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.78 | 7.8% | 1,438 | 1729.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.61 | 3.9% | 0 | 1105.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.61 | 3.9% | 0 | 1105.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.61 | 1.5% | 0 | 436.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.60 | 3.9% | 0 | 1124.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.60 | 3.9% | 0 | 1124.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-monarch-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.43 | 3.3% | 0 | 1338.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $0.43 | 3.2% | 0 | 1314.4 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $0.35 | 2.3% | 0 | 1167.8 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-monarch-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.32 | 3.8% | 0 | 2069.9 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.32 | 2.2% | 0 | 1196.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.31 | 3.8% | 0 | 2125.0 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.29 | 2.3% | 0 | 1373.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.24 | 5.6% | 4,803 | 4050.6 | 1.19× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 5.0% | 4,915 | 4357.3 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 5.0% | 4,791 | 4357.3 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 4.5% | 4,984 | 4649.8 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 3.4% | 0 | 3923.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 4.2% | 5,005 | 4888.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 4.0% | 5,092 | 5025.3 | 1.01× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.11 | 3.5% | 5,282 | 5534.2 | 0.95× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/mil-spec`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [STACHovskyy|CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STACHovskyy%7CCS2.ME) $0.35 $20.75 59.29x 2026-11-04 16:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $20.53 58.66x 2026-11-08 18:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 $18.38 52.51x 2026-11-05 11:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [Arons](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Arons) $0.35 $18.38 52.51x 2026-11-04 14:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 $18.20 52.00x 2026-11-04 12:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 $17.54 50.11x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=mil-spec)

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [Dink Donk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dink%20Donk) $0.35 $0.14 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[Nova | Windblown weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown) [Dink Donk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dink%20Donk) $0.35 $0.36 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [Dink Donk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dink%20Donk) $0.35 $0.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Nova | Windblown weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown) [Dink Donk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dink%20Donk) $0.35 $0.36 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [Joel](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Joel) $0.35 $0.11 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) [Yes Skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Yes%20Skins) $0.35 $0.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.35 $0.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.35 $0.14 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[P250 | Exchanger weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger) [MARCEPAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MARCEPAN) $0.35 $0.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.35 $0.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.35 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.35 | 86.80% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.35 | 83.94% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.35 | 85.34% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.35 | 84.32% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.35 | 85.71% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.35 | 86.05% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.35 | 86.52% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.35 | 86.68% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.35 | 86.97% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.35 | 87.51% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.35 | 88.11% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.35 | 87.32% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.35 | 86.81% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.35 | 87.10% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 3.1% blue 64.1% Rare 13.3% #4b69ff 13.8% milspec 2.0% Mil Spec 3.7% best hit $20.75 (59.29x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt