---
title: "MOONFALL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MOONFALL JOKER ($19.38) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 40 items with odds, observed 88.53% over 6,719 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MOONFALL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MOONFALL JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=all)

Price · $19.38

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $16.96 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.53% · 6,719 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.01% ±8.07 5,515 openings

7 days · 88.53% ±7.35 6,719 openings

30 days · 88.53% ±7.35 6,719 openings

since tracking started · 88.53% ±7.35 6,719 openings

80.5% 89.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=24h) | 5,515 | 89.01% ±8.07 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=7d) | 6,719 | 88.53% ±7.35 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker) | 6,719 | 88.53% ±7.35 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall-joker?window=all) | 6,719 | 88.53% ±7.35 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,861 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $316 | 64.3% | 235 | 236.6 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $60.36 | 12.3% | 230 | 236.6 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $54.89 | 2.8% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $46.69 | 2.4% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $43.39 | 2.2% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $40.36 | 2.1% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $20.98 | 4.3% | 282 | 236.6 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $17.60 | 1.2% | 0 | 78.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $13.14 | 0.9% | 0 | 78.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $10.77 | 0.7% | 0 | 78.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $8.17 | 0.6% | 0 | 78.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $4.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 78.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.21 | 0.4% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $4.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 78.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $3.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 29 | $3.00 | 0.6% | 233 | 236.6 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.43 | 0.5% | 196 | 236.6 | 0.83× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.34 | 0.5% | 254 | 236.6 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 29 | $1.91 | 0.4% | 237 | 236.6 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.91 | 0.4% | 259 | 236.6 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.24 | 0.3% | 220 | 236.6 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.24 | 0.3% | 210 | 236.6 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 29 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 219 | 236.6 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.01 | 0.2% | 224 | 236.6 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.99 | 0.2% | 240 | 236.6 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 1 in 29 | $0.92 | 0.2% | 246 | 236.6 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.90 | 0.2% | 238 | 236.6 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.64 | 0.1% | 272 | 236.6 | 1.15× |
| [Sticker \| Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) | 1 in 29 | $0.57 | 0.1% | 235 | 236.6 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 228 | 236.6 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 226 | 236.6 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) | 1 in 29 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 218 | 236.6 | 0.92× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 237 | 236.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 118.4 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 211 | 236.6 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 118.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/moonfall-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=moonfall-joker)

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [KRZAQ CS2.ME CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KRZAQ%20CS2.ME%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $19.38 $0.37 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) [KRZAQ CS2.ME CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KRZAQ%20CS2.ME%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $19.38 $5.53 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Crane Flight weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight) Hidden $19.38 $13.84 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) Hidden $19.38 $5.53 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) Hidden $19.38 $3.83 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-well-worn) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $19.38 $0.52 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) Hidden $19.38 $20.98 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $19.38 $0.47 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [Ździrka](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C5%B9dzirka) $19.38 $1.01 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) Hidden $19.38 $1.91 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $19.38 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $20.68 | 87.48% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $20.78 | 88.52% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.3% #8847ff 3.4% Covert 0.9% Ancient 0.9% red 0.9% classified 5.7% pink 6.9% Classified 1.1% blue 10.3% Common 3.4% #d32ce6 3.4% blueLight 3.4% restricted 1.7% gray 15.5% violet 15.5% grey 1.7% Uncommon 3.4% common 3.4% Industrial 3.4% milspec 3.4% high 3.4% mil spec 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt