---
title: "MOONFALL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MOONFALL ($1.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 87.27% over 76K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [MOONFALL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · MOONFALL

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.88 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.27% · 76K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.94% ±1.60 63.8K openings

7 days · 87.27% ±1.48 76K openings

30 days · 87.27% ±1.48 76K openings

since tracking started · 87.27% ±1.48 76K openings

84.5% 87.0% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=24h) | 63.8K | 86.94% ±1.60 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=7d) | 76K | 87.27% ±1.48 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall) | 76K | 87.27% ±1.48 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/moonfall?window=all) | 76K | 87.27% ±1.48 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $316 | 1.1% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.72× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $60.36 | 0.5% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $54.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $46.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $43.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $40.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $20.98 | 0.5% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $17.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $13.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 77.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $4.21 | 0.4% | 0 | 69.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 77.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $3.44 | 2.4% | 0 | 473.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 79 | $3.00 | 4.4% | 1,059 | 985.9 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2.43 | 4.8% | 1,294 | 1335.2 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $2.34 | 4.8% | 1,288 | 1381.8 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 46 | $1.91 | 4.8% | 1,584 | 1700.1 | 0.93× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.91 | 4.8% | 1,590 | 1700.1 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $1.32 | 1.0% | 0 | 496.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $1.24 | 4.1% | 2,409 | 2235.7 | 1.08× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $1.24 | 4.1% | 2,340 | 2235.7 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 33 | $1.19 | 4.1% | 2,554 | 2328.9 | 1.10× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.01 | 4.1% | 3,047 | 2740.3 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1.01 | 2.0% | 0 | 1327.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.99 | 5.5% | 3,699 | 3780.5 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.95 | 2.8% | 0 | 1995.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 1 in 20 | $0.92 | 5.3% | 3,714 | 3920.3 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.90 | 5.2% | 3,899 | 3951.3 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.64 | 4.3% | 4,453 | 4533.5 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) | 1 in 16 | $0.57 | 4.0% | 4,571 | 4743.1 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.52 | 3.8% | 4,900 | 4921.7 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.50 | 3.7% | 4,960 | 4999.3 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.49 | 1.5% | 0 | 2064.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) | 1 in 15 | $0.47 | 3.5% | 5,205 | 5123.5 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.47 | 3.5% | 5,169 | 5123.5 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.41 | 2.5% | 0 | 4129.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.37 | 3.1% | 5,691 | 5643.6 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.34 | 1.7% | 0 | 3470.0 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/moonfall`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Japczan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Japczan) $1.00 $355 355.2x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [big knuygus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/big%20knuygus) $1.00 $346 346.1x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Sites Holló XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sites%20Holl%C3%B3%20XD) $1.00 $346 346.1x 2026-11-10 18:06 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [papito\_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/papito_lt%3B3) $1.00 $346 346.1x 2026-11-10 14:41 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) [BomBa skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BomBa%20skins.army) $1.00 $62.78 62.78x 2026-11-10 19:49 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $60.36 60.36x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $60.36 60.36x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=moonfall)

[Sticker | Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) [gaudeanus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/gaudeanus) $1.00 $0.57 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sticker | Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) Hidden $1.00 $0.57 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sticker | Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) Hidden $1.00 $0.57 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sticker | Froggles (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-froggles-holo) Hidden $1.00 $0.57 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [blk\_420“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/blk_420%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.00 $1.01 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-well-worn) [Sites Holló XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sites%20Holl%C3%B3%20XD) $1.00 $0.52 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $1.00 $0.51 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-field-tested) [Sites Holló XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sites%20Holl%C3%B3%20XD) $1.00 $0.47 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [Juleczkaaa\_06](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Juleczkaaa_06) $1.00 $1.24 1.24x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) [Czaro1025 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Czaro1025%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.92 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 88.16% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.00 | 88.95% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 0.7% Classified 0.1% blue 6.0% Common 1.8% #d32ce6 2.2% blueLight 2.2% restricted 0.6% gray 25.7% violet 24.3% grey 1.7% Uncommon 4.9% common 5.1% Industrial 5.1% milspec 6.3% high 6.6% mil spec 6.6% best hit $355 (355.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt