---
title: "NEON FLORA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NEON FLORA JOKER ($4.64) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.47% from 38 items with odds, observed 84.79% over 75.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NEON FLORA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NEON FLORA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=all)

Price · $4.64

Advertised RTP · 87.47% · EV $4.06 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.79% · 75.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.08% ±7.15 8,129 openings

7 days · 85.28% ±2.63 60.1K openings

30 days · 84.79% ±2.34 75.8K openings

since tracking started · 84.79% ±2.34 75.8K openings

77.5% 85.3% 93.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.45% – 87.13%, 75,766 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=24h) | 8,129 | 85.08% ±7.15 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=7d) | 60.1K | 85.28% ±2.63 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker) | 75.8K | 84.79% ±2.34 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora-joker?window=all) | 75.8K | 84.79% ±2.34 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $74.13 | 41.5% | 0 | 1723.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $72.83 | 40.8% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.19 | 2.3% | 0 | 1723.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.09 | 4.6% | 3,369 | 3448.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $3.98 | 2.2% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $3.12 | 0.9% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $1.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $1.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $1.33 | 0.4% | 0 | 862.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.30 | 1.5% | 3,385 | 3448.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 1723.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 862.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 861.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 862.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.35 | 0.4% | 3,453 | 3448.2 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 1723.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.31 | 0.3% | 3,476 | 3448.2 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.18 | 0.2% | 3,524 | 3448.2 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 3,485 | 3449.0 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 3,403 | 3449.0 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 3,403 | 3449.0 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 3,489 | 3449.0 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 1724.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 3,549 | 3449.0 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 3,496 | 3449.0 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 3,574 | 3449.0 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/neon-flora-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=neon-flora-joker)

[Nova | Wurst Hölle weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.16 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.83 0.18x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.83 0.18x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror) [GOTHKICIAUWU#MEOWskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GOTHKICIAUWU%23MEOWskins.army) $4.64 $0.83 0.18x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

[SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) [GOTHKICIAUWU#MEOWskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GOTHKICIAUWU%23MEOWskins.army) $4.64 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.18 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [GOTHKICIAUWU#MEOWskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GOTHKICIAUWU%23MEOWskins.army) $4.64 $4.08 0.88x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) [AshW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/AshW) $4.64 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $4.64 | 87.47% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $4.76 | 87.47% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.62 | 87.43% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.68 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.62 | 87.44% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.53 | 87.58% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.60 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.78 | 87.45% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.75 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.48 | 87.46% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $4.44 | 87.49% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.76 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.72 | 87.53% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.83 | 87.48% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.82 | 87.47% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.83 | 87.43% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 4.5% classified 2.3% pink 6.8% Mythical 10.2% violet 11.4% restricted 1.1% blue 45.5% industrial 9.1% milspec 4.5% blueLight 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.47 on average: an expected loss of $12.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt