---
title: "NEON FLORA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NEON FLORA ($0.25) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 84.80% over 267K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NEON FLORA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NEON FLORA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.22 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.80% · 267K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.64% ±2.37 25.4K openings

7 days · 84.84% ±0.81 220K openings

30 days · 84.80% ±0.74 267K openings

since tracking started · 84.80% ±0.74 267K openings

81.5% 84.7% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.35% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.07% – 85.54%, 266,883 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=24h) | 25.4K | 84.64% ±2.37 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=7d) | 220K | 84.84% ±0.81 | −6.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora) | 267K | 84.80% ±0.74 | −6.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/neon-flora?window=all) | 267K | 84.80% ±0.74 | −6.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 267K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $75.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $71.37 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $4.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 18.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $3.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 26.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $3.81 | 0.3% | 45 | 53.5 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,449 | $3.22 | 1.0% | 0 | 184.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $1.87 | 1.7% | 0 | 540.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 344 | $1.56 | 2.1% | 0 | 778.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $1.33 | 2.4% | 0 | 1069.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $1.30 | 7.2% | 3,288 | 3251.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $1.01 | 1.5% | 0 | 852.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $0.83 | 2.6% | 0 | 1815.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $0.80 | 1.9% | 0 | 1360.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 196 | $0.80 | 1.9% | 0 | 1360.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.73 | 2.0% | 0 | 1631.0 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 227 | $0.66 | 1.3% | 0 | 1179.1 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.47 | 1.9% | 0 | 2323.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.46 | 4.6% | 0 | 5908.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $0.44 | 2.0% | 0 | 2649.7 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $0.43 | 2.0% | 0 | 2772.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.35 | 7.2% | 9,204 | 12066.5 | 0.76× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.31 | 3.4% | 0 | 6465.1 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.28 | 3.8% | 0 | 7924.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.28 | 7.2% | 9,995 | 15079.8 | 0.66× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $0.21 | 2.0% | 0 | 5697.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $0.20 | 2.1% | 0 | 6224.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.18 | 4.7% | 17,627 | 15144.0 | 1.16× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.15 | 2.4% | 0 | 9309.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.14 | 2.4% | 0 | 10047.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.14 | 4.0% | 19,168 | 16742.9 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $0.14 | 1.6% | 0 | 6553.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.12 | 3.7% | 18,627 | 17809.7 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.11 | 3.5% | 20,721 | 18440.7 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.09 | 1.9% | 0 | 12162.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 20,772 | 19980.8 | 1.04× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 20,245 | 19980.8 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 20,283 | 19978.1 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 20,040 | 19978.1 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/neon-flora`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $0.25 $77.35 309.4x 2026-11-03 06:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [ApplesLover](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ApplesLover) $0.25 $76.42 305.7x 2026-11-07 23:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [tilo9o90](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/tilo9o90) $0.25 $76.34 305.4x 2026-11-08 11:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $0.25 $75.85 303.4x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $0.25 $75.42 301.7x 2026-11-05 20:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [p☯wek ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/p%E2%98%AFwek%20%E2%9D%A4) $0.25 $74.33 297.3x 2026-11-10 17:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $0.25 $73.12 292.5x 2026-11-10 09:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [ShacoBaran](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ShacoBaran) $0.25 $73.12 292.5x 2026-11-09 23:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=neon-flora)

[P250 | Cassette weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette) [Emmi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Emmi) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) [????????↩↪????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%86%A9%E2%86%AA%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.25 $0.28 1.12x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple) [Emmi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Emmi) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle) Hidden $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [76561198873783019](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/76561198873783019) $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [Rakvo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rakvo) $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle) [Rakvo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rakvo) $0.25 $0.17 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[P250 | Cassette weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette) Hidden $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.25 | 87.11% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.25 | 88.00% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.25 | 88.00% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.25 | 88.65% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.25 | 87.20% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.25 | 88.40% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.25 | 87.88% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $0.25 | 84.32% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.25 | 84.90% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.25 | 87.19% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.25 | 86.72% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.25 | 88.01% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 87.87% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.25 | 88.01% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.25 | 86.44% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.25 | 87.25% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% Mythical 2.9% violet 7.0% restricted 0.5% blue 64.4% industrial 11.6% milspec 7.0% blueLight 6.7% best hit $77.35 (309.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt