---
title: "NIGHTMARE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NIGHTMARE JOKER ($173.93) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 93.70% over 468 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NIGHTMARE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NIGHTMARE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=all)

Price · $173.93

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $152.19 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.70% · 468 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62 openings · below min

7 days · 94.26% ±13.69 286 openings

30 days · 93.70% ±10.68 468 openings

since tracking started · 93.70% ±10.68 468 openings

38.5% 73.5% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=24h) | 62 | 68.81% ±29.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=7d) | 286 | 94.26% ±13.7 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker) | 468 | 93.70% ±10.7 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare-joker?window=all) | 468 | 93.70% ±10.7 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $892 | 27.9% | 31 | 24.0 | 1.29× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $383 | 12.0% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $347 | 10.8% | 30 | 24.0 | 1.25× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $324 | 10.2% | 27 | 24.0 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $261 | 8.2% | 18 | 24.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $236 | 7.4% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $197 | 6.2% | 18 | 24.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $141 | 4.4% | 21 | 24.0 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $138 | 4.3% | 34 | 24.0 | 1.41× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $112 | 3.5% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $56.50 | 1.8% | 31 | 24.0 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $36.92 | 1.2% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $24.12 | 0.8% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $23.63 | 0.7% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.42 | 0.1% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.33 | 0.1% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.99 | 0.1% | 14 | 24.0 | 0.58× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.66 | 0.1% | 26 | 24.0 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 21 | $3.09 | 0.1% | 25 | 24.0 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.46 | 0.1% | 28 | 24.0 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $2.33 | 0.1% | 21 | 24.0 | 0.87× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/nightmare-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $179 $898 5.01x 2026-11-05 12:43 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $179 $898 5.01x 2026-11-05 01:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $179 $897 5.00x 2026-11-04 08:35 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $179 $897 5.00x 2026-11-04 08:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $179 $897 5.00x 2026-11-04 08:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $179 $897 5.00x 2026-11-04 08:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $178 $897 5.04x 2026-11-03 19:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Majd4n skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Majd4n%20skins.army) $178 $897 5.04x 2026-11-03 19:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [XITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XITO) $175 $892 5.09x 2026-11-07 22:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $175 $892 5.09x 2026-11-07 22:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=nightmare-joker)

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) Hidden $174 $4.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $174 $383 2.20x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $174 $324 1.87x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Mar\_Bat123 OsloRP](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Mar_Bat123%20OsloRP) $174 $4.42 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $174 $112 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) Hidden $174 $36.92 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $174 $141 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Bot BOB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bot%20BOB) $174 $112 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $174 $56.50 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) Hidden $174 $2.33 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $174 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $173 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $175 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $175 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $180 | 87.50% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 28.6% sunny 9.5% classified 14.3% Extraordinary 4.8% extraordinary 4.8% Ancient 4.8% Legendary 9.5% pink 9.5% blue 14.3% best hit $898 (5.01x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt